sharp geographical differences in attitudes to the warAlmost a year after Russia’s war against Ukraine started, it has united the west, according to a 15-country survey – but exposed a widening gulf with the rest of the world that is defining the contours of a future global order.
The study, by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank, surveyed opinions in nine EU member states, including France, Germany and Poland, and in Britain and the US, as well as China, Russia, India and Turkey.
It revealed sharp geographical differences in attitudes to the war, democracy and the global balance of power, the authors said, suggesting Russia’s aggression may be a historic turning point marking the emergence of a “post-western” world order.
“The paradox of the Ukraine war is that the west is both more united, and less influential in the world, than ever before,” said Mark Leonard, the thinktank’s director and a co-author of the report, based on polling carried out last month.
Timothy Garton Ash, a professor of European studies at Oxford University, who also worked on the study, called the findings “extremely sobering”. The survey showed the war had given the transatlantic west unity and purpose, he said.
However, it had “utterly failed to persuade major powers of the rest, such as China, India and Turkey”. The lesson was clear: “We urgently need a new narrative that is actually persuasive to countries like India, the world’s largest democracy.”
The survey showed western views of Russia had hardened in the past year. Large majorities in Britain (77{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}), the US (71{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}) and the nine EU states (65{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}) regarded Russia as an “adversary”, with which their country was in conflict, or in competition as a “rival”.
On the other hand, just 14{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in the US, 15{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in the nine EU states surveyed and 8{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in Britain viewed Russia as an “ally” who shared their interests, or a “necessary partner”. Western respondents were equally negative in how they described Russia.
Asked to pick two out of 10 proposed descriptions, in the US 45{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} and 41{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} respectively of survey respondents chose “aggressive” and “untrustworthy”, along with 48{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} and 30{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in the nine EU countries and 57{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} and 49{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in Britain.
Across the nine EU countries polled, an average of 55{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of people favoured continuing sanctions against Moscow even at the expense of economic pain.
Compared with a similar poll last summer, moreover, Russia’s war against Ukraine was now seen by more people in the western alliance as a fight for democracy and their own security – and as a war not just in, but on, Europe, ECFR said.
In the US, 36{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of respondents said support for Ukraine was driven mostly by the need to defend American democracy, whereas the prevailing view in the UK (44{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}) and among the EU nine (45{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}) was that backing Ukraine was about defending their own security.
More people in Europe (44{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in Britain, 38{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in the EU nine) believed Ukraine should retake all its territory, even at the cost of a longer war, and fewer (22{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} and 30{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}) wanted the war to stop as soon as possible, even if that meant Ukraine ceding land to Russia.
Responses from the non-western countries surveyed, however, were very different. Large numbers of people in China (76{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}), India (77{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}) and Turkey (73{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}), for example, said they felt Russia was “stronger” or “as strong” as before the war. They saw Moscow as a strategic “ally” and “necessary partner” of their country (79{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}, 79{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}, 69{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}).
Similarly, many more (41{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in China, 48{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in Turkey and 54{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in India) wanted the war to end as soon as possible, even if that meant Ukraine ceding territory, while just 23{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}, 27{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}, and 30{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} thought Ukraine should regain its land even at the cost of a longer conflict.
There was a great deal more scepticism, too, about the west’s motives. Fewer than a quarter of those polled in China and Turkey, for example, and only 15{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in Russia, believed the west was supporting Ukraine to defend its own security or democracy.
Almost two-thirds of Russian respondents (64{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}) said the US was an “adversary”, with 51{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} and 46{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} saying the same of the EU and UK. In China, 43{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} perceived the US as a rival, 40{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} said the same of the UK, and 34{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of the EU.
Ukraine’s frontline: trench warfare, drones and defending a ghost town – video
Many outside the west predicted the US-led liberal order would cede global dominance over the next decade, with the west predicted to become just one global power among several. Only 7{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in Russia and 6{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in China predicted it would be dominant 10 years from now.
In Europe and the US, however, many (29{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in Britain, 28{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in the EU nine, and 26{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in the US) foresaw a new bipolar world of two blocs led by the US and China, whereas there were signs that emerging powers saw the future in more multipolar terms.
In India, for example, 87{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of respondents said they regarded the US as an “ally” or “partner”, while 82{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} felt the same about the EU, 79{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} about Russia and Britain, and 59{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} about Turkey. Only China was seen as a “rival” or “adversary” (75{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}).
“Many people in the west see the coming international order as the return of a cold war-type bipolarity between west and east, democracy and authoritarianism,” the study’s authors said. “But people in those countries see themselves very differently.”
The west will have to live, they said, with “hostile dictatorships such as China and Russia”, but also with independent powers such as India and Turkey. These do not “represent some new third bloc” or even share a common ideology, but nor are they “content to adjust to the whims and plans of the superpowers”.
Rather than expecting them to support “western efforts to defend the fading post-cold war order, we need to be ready to partner with them in building a new one”.
Secretary of Point out Antony Blinken attends a bilateral conference with Moldovan President Maia Sandu all through the Munich Protection Conference on February 17. (Petr David Josek/AFP/Getty Images)
Secretary of Condition Antony Blinken said Friday that the US has “deep concern” about Russia’s initiatives to destabilize the govt of Moldova.
This comes as Moldova President Maia Sandu stated before this week that Russia was plotting a coup in Moldova.
“We have deep issue about some of the plotting that we have noticed coming from Russia to try to destabilize the federal government,” Blinken said at a meeting with Sandu in Germany on the sidelines of the Munich Protection Convention. “We stand strongly with Moldova in aid of its security, its independence, its territorial integrity, the pretty significant reform endeavours that the president and the federal government are generating.”
Sandu described 2022 as an “incredibly tough 12 months for Moldova” and thanked the US for its help with its myriad troubles, which includes with energy, the financial system and protection.
Why Moldova is essential: Moldova, positioned amongst Ukraine and Romania, was earlier element of the Soviet Union at the conclusion of Entire world War II. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, a handful of “frozen conflict” zones in japanese Europe emerged, such as a slither of land together Moldova’s border with Ukraine acknowledged as Transnistria.
The territory declared alone a Soviet republic in 1990, opposing any try by Moldova to turn into an unbiased condition or to merge with Romania. When Moldova grew to become impartial the subsequent 12 months, Russia swiftly inserted alone as a so-known as “peacekeeping force” in Transnistria, sending troops in to back again professional-Moscow separatists there.
This meant “peacekeeping” presence, which has in observe seen the Kremlin prop up a puppet point out that seeks to undermine Moldova’s sovereignty, has also mirrored Moscow’s pretext for invasions in Ga and Ukraine.
Alarm bells in Moldova and the West grew louder subsequent common refrains from the Kremlin that the legal rights of ethnic Russians ended up remaining violated in Transnistria – yet another argument made use of by Putin to justify his February 2022 invasion of Luhansk and Donetsk in jap Ukraine, which contained two breakaway Russian-backed statelets.
In the context of the war now, the Russian-backed separatist enclave at the southwestern edge of the region could now current a possible bookend to any Russian assault westwards from Ukraine’s eastern Donbas location.
The Ukrainian president, Volodymr Zelenskiy, will be the opening speaker on Friday at the three-day Munich security conference as the west faces urgent calls to speed up ammunition production and supplies to Kyiv in the face of mounting fears that Russia is planning a new offensive. The conference is expected to be attended by more than 100 world leaders, and diplomats, including the US vice-president Kamala Harris, and the event will be seen as a key test of the west’s resolve to fight out a grinding, prolonged, expensive war.
Negotiations will start in a week on extending a UN-backed initiative that has enabled Ukraine to export grain from ports blockaded by Russia after its invasion, a senior Ukrainian official said on Friday. Yuriy Vaskov said “I think common sense will prevail and the corridor will be extended.”
Ukraine’s state broadcaster Suspilne reports that the energy grid is working without consumption restrictions today across all of Ukraine, with the exception of Odesa, where “due to damaged infrastructure there are still restrictions” and “power outage schedules are applied.”
Finland’s parliament will vote on 28 February to approve the necessary legislation that will allow the country to eventually become a member of Nato, Reuters reports the Finnish parliament’s head of foreign affairs committee said on Friday.
Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova has said that the US is inciting Ukraine to strike directly at Russian territory, after comments by US under secretary of state Victoria Nuland about Crimea. Zakharova said “[The US] supply weapons in huge quantities, provide intelligence, simply participate directly in the planning of military operations, train Ukrainian armed formations. Now the American warmongers have gone even further: they are inciting the Kyiv regime to further escalate, simply to transfer the war to the territory of our country.”
Nuland had told the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington the US considers that Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, should be demilitarised at a minimum and Washington supports Ukrainian attacks on military targets on the peninsula.
Facebook allowed exiled Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor with ties to the Kremlin to run ads calling for protests and uprisings against the pro-western government, even though he and his political party were on US sanctions lists.
That is it from me, Martin Belam, for now. I will be back later. Léonie Chao-Fong will be with you shortly.
Ahead of the Munich security conference, Mykhailo Podolyak, a political adviser to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has reiterated Kyiv’s position that Russia must withdraw from Ukraine as a pre-condition for peace talks.
Reuters reports Podolyak tweeted “For decriminalization of global politics and real global security, the war must end with Ukraine’s victory. Negotiations can begin when Russia withdraws its troops from the territory of Ukraine. Other options only give Russia time to regroup forces and resume hostilities at any moment.”
Finland’s parliament will vote on 28 February to approve the necessary legislation that will allow the country to eventually become a member of Nato, Reuters reports the Finnish parliament’s head of foreign affairs committee said on Friday.
Turkey and Hungary are yet to approve the bids by Sweden and Finland to join the alliance.
Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova has said that the US is inciting Ukraine to strike directly at Russian territory, after comments by US under secretary of state Victoria Nuland about Crimea. [See 8.43 GMT]
Tass reports that in her weekly press briefing, Zakharova said:
Once again, we have to state the involvement of the US in the conflict in Ukraine. They supply weapons in huge quantities, provide intelligence, simply participate directly in the planning of military operations, train Ukrainian armed formations.
Now the American warmongers have gone even further: they are inciting the Kyiv regime to further escalate, simply to transfer the war to the territory of our country. Like this, direct strikes. This is what we warned about before, and what we were because of forced to launch a special military operation. Now they, US officials, are talking about it openly.
Nuland had said that the US supported Ukraine striking at targets in Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014 in a move which is not widely recognised by the international community.
Zakharova said “Crimea is reliably protected”, according to the Tass report.
Ukrainian official: Negotiations to extend Black Sea grain export deal will begin next week
Negotiations will start in a week on extending a UN-backed initiative that has enabled Ukraine to export grain from ports blockaded by Russia after its invasion, a senior Ukrainian official said on Friday.
“Negotiations on extending the grain corridor will begin in a week and then we will understand the positions of all parties,” Ukrainian deputy infrastructure minister Yuriy Vaskov said during a grain conference in Kyiv organised by the ProAgro agriculture consultancy.
“I think common sense will prevail and the corridor will be extended,” he said.
Reuters reports he said that pressure was being exerted on Russia not only to extend the corridor but also to improve the way it works. “We see that the enemy is starting to put forward new conditions. We understand that it will be difficult – as it was in November,” Vaskov said.
A grain terminal at the seaport in Odesa. Photograph: Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters
The Black Sea Grain Initiative brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last July allowed grain to be exported from three Ukrainian ports.
The agreement was extended by a further 120 days in November and is up for renewal again in March, but Russia has signalled that it is unhappy with some aspects of the deal and has asked for sanctions affecting its agricultural exports to be lifted.
Patrick Wintour
The Guardian’s diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour reports from Munich:
The Ukrainian president, Volodymr Zelenskiy, will be the opening speaker on Friday at the three-day Munich security conference as the west faces urgent calls to speed up ammunition production and supplies to Kyiv in the face of mounting fears that Russia is planning a new offensive.
The conference is expected to be attended by more than 100 world leaders, and diplomats, including the US vice-president Kamala Harris, and the event will be seen as a key test of the west’s resolve to fight out a grinding, prolonged, expensive war. Few are expected to hold out hope of early peace negotiations.
The MSC has had a tradition going back decades of inviting senior leaders from states hostile, or ambivalent, towards the west, but this year has taken the unusual decision to exclude any representatives from Iran or Russia. Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, has responded to his exclusion by setting a Moscow foreign policy goal of ending the diplomatic monopoly of the west.
The Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, however, will be speaking at the conference and his speech will be watched closely to see how far he is willing to go both in distancing himself from Russia’s invasion and in seeking out a post-Covid new trading relationship with the west. He is expected to meet the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, who is likely to urge him to do more to criticise the invasion of Ukrainian sovereign territory. A planned trip by Blinken to Beijing was cancelled over the Chinese spy balloon controversy.
Read more here: Zelenskiy to open Munich summit amid fears of new Russian offensive
In Russia, Tass is reporting some reaction to those comments by US under secretary of state Victoria Nuland about Crimea. She said the US supported Ukrainian strikes on Crimea as legitimate military targets, and that Crimea should be demilitarised at least as part of any solution to the war. [See 8.43 GMT]
Tass quotes Dmitry Novikov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma committee on international affairs saying:
Each such statement serves as a pretext for escalation not only in Ukraine, but also around it. An increasing number of states are forced to determine their position in relation to what is actually happening in the centre of Europe. Nevertheless, the more provocative statements are heard, and Nuland’s statement is pure provocation, the further we are from resolving the conflict.
Ukraine’s state broadcaster Suspilne reports that the energy grid is working without consumption restrictions today across all of Ukraine, with the exception of Odesa, where “due to damaged infrastructure there are still restrictions” and “power outage schedules are applied.”
The United States considers that Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, should be demilitarised at a minimum and Washington supports Ukrainian attacks on military targets on the peninsula, under secretary of state Victoria Nuland has said.
“No matter what the Ukrainians decide about Crimea in terms of where they choose to fight etcetera, Ukraine is not going to be safe unless Crimea is at a minimum, at a minimum, demilitarised,” Nuland told the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
Asked about the dangers of escalation in the Ukraine war, Reuters reports Nuland said Russia had a host of military installations crucial for the conflict. “Those are legitimate targets, Ukraine is hitting them and we are supporting that,” Nuland said.
Reuters has a quick snap that a Ukrainian official has said negotiations on extending the Black Sea corridor grain export deal will begin next week.
More details soon …
Suspilne, Ukraine’s state broadcaster, reports on Telegram that two people were killed in the Beryslav district of Kherson in the last 24 hours. Citing Volodymyr Litvinov, head of the Beryslav district administration, it reported:
During the day, the Russian army shelled four communities of the Beryslav district. Residents’ residential buildings and outbuildings were damaged. Two people were killed in the village of Zmiivka, and one was injured in Tyahynka.
Facebook allowed an exiled Moldovan oligarch with ties to the Kremlin to run ads calling for protests and uprisings against the pro-western government, even though he and his political party were on US sanctions lists, Associated Press reports.
The ads featuring exiled opposition politician Ilan Shor were ultimately removed by Facebook but not before they were seen millions of times in Moldova.
Seeking to exploit anger over inflation and rising fuel prices, the paid posts from Shor’s political party targeted the government of pro-western president, Maia Sandu, who earlier this week detailed what she said was a Russian plot to topple her government using external saboteurs.
“Destabilisation attempts are a reality and for our institutions, they represent a real challenge,” Sandu said Thursday as she swore in a new government led by pro-western prime minister, Dorin Recean, her former defence and security adviser.
The ads reveal how Russia and its allies have exploited lapses by social media platforms – like Facebook, many of them operated by US companies – to spread propaganda and disinformation that weaponises economic and social insecurity in an attempt to undermine governments in eastern Europe.
Moldova borders Ukraine, and the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria is sandwiched between the two.
China’s President Xi Jinping will deliver a peace speech on the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Italy’s foreign minister said on Friday, citing top diplomat Wang Yi.
Wang Yi “told me that Xi will make a peace speech on the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine” on 24 February, Reuters reports minister Antonio Tajani told Italian radio RAI, the day after he met the top Chinese diplomat in Rome.
The UK Ministry of Defence says that as many as 60,000 Russian forces may have been killed just under a year of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and that the casualty rate “has significantly increased since September 2022 when ‘partial mobilisation’ was imposed”.
Convict recruits used by Wagner may have has a casualty rate of one in every two men.
Wagner chief blames ‘bureaucracy’ for slowing military gains
The head of Russia’s mercenary outfit Wagner said on Thursday it could take months to capture the embattled Ukraine city of Bakhmut and slammed Moscow’s “monstrous bureaucracy” for slowing military gains.
Russia has been trying to encircle and capture the battered industrial city ahead of 24 February, the first anniversary of what it terms its “special military operation” in Ukraine.
“I think it’s [going to be in] March or in April,” Wagner head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said in one of several messages posted online.
“To take Bakhmut you have to cut all supply routes. It’s a significant task,” he said, adding: “Progress is not going as fast as we would like.
“Bakhmut would have been taken before the New Year, if not for our monstrous military bureaucracy.”
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said in his nightly video address on Thursday that his priority at the moment is to hold off Russian attacks and get ready for an eventual Ukrainian counter-offensive.
“Holding the situation at the front and preparing for any enemy steps of escalation – that is the priority for the near future,” he said.
Nato alliance officials this week discussed the need for more military hardware for Kyiv, and Britain and Poland agreed after their leaders met on Thursday that support should be stepped up.
US officials have advised Ukraine to hold off with any counter-offensive until the latest supply of US weaponry is in place and training has been provided.
Last year’s gathering took place days before the war began. As Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s borders, western leaders in Munich urged President Vladimir Putin not to invade and warned of dire consequences if he did.
This year, leaders will grapple with the consequences of Putin’s decision to ignore their pleas and unleash the most devastating war in Europe since the second world war that has killed countless thousands and forced millions to flee.
Russian leaders will be notable by their absence at the conference, which runs until Sunday, but senior Ukrainian officials are expected to address it.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address his priority was to hold off Russian attacks and get ready for an eventual Ukrainian counter-offensive.
“Holding the situation at the front and preparing for any enemy steps of escalation – that is the priority for the near future,” he said.
Nato alliance officials this week discussed the need for more military hardware for Kyiv, and Britain and Poland agreed after their leaders met on Thursday that support should be stepped up.
US officials have advised Ukraine to hold off with any counter-offensive until the latest supply of US weaponry is in place and training has been provided.
The Ukraine military’s general staff, in a Thursday evening report, said Russia had also shelled more than two dozen eastern and southern settlements.
There was no word from Russia on the missile strikes or shelling, and Reuters could not independently confirm the battlefield reports.
World leaders meet in Munich for security conference
Senior politicians and military leaders from around the world are meeting today in Germany, with Ukrainian officials expected to address the security conference.
Bolstered by tens of thousands of reservists, Russia has intensified ground attacks across southern and eastern Ukraine, and, as the first anniversary of its 24 February invasion nears, a major new Russian offensive appears to be taking shape.
US vice-president Kamala Harris arrives at Munich Airport on 16 February 2023 in Freising, Germany. Photograph: Hannes Magerstaedt/Getty Images
Russia rained missiles across Ukraine on Thursday and struck its largest oil refinery. Of at least 36 missiles that Russia fired about 16 were shot down, the air force said, a lower rate than normal.
Ukraine said the barrage included missiles that its air defences cannot shoot down, which will only add urgency to its appeals for more western military support.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and US vice-president Kamala Harris are among many top officials attending the Munich Security Conference.
Summary and welcome
Hello and welcome to today’s live coverage of the war in Ukraine. My name is Helen Sullivan and I’ll be bringing you the latest for the next while.
Senior politicians and military leaders from around the world will meet today in Germany for the Munich Security Conference, with Ukrainian officials expected to address gathering.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and US vice-president Kamala Harris are among many top officials attending the meeting.
In the meantime, here are the other key recent developments:
Russia fired Grad rockets and barrel artillery at a residential district in the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut on Thursday, killing three men and two women and wounding nine more, Ukraine’s prosecutor general said. Blurred images of the victims were shared on Telegram by the office of the prosecutor, who said the attack was being investigated as a war crime. “Criminal proceedings have been initiated.”
Russia launched a total of 36 air- and sea-based cruise missiles, guided air-to-surface missiles and anti-ship missiles at Ukraine overnight into Thursday, according to Ukrainian officials. At least 16 missiles were shot down by Ukrainian forces, the air force said. Among them, air defences in the south downed eight Kalibr missiles fired from a ship in the Black Sea, the officials said.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy has ruled out giving up any Ukrainian territory in a potential peace deal with Russia. In an interview with the BBC, Ukraine’s leader said conceding land would mean Russia could “keep coming back”. Zelenskiy said a predicted spring offensive had already begun but he believed his country’s forces could keep resisting Russia’s advance until they were able to launch a counter-offensive.
Bakhmut will fall within a couple of months, the head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group has predicted. In an interview with a pro-war military blogger, Yevgeny Prigozhin forecast Bakhmut would be seized in March or April, depending on how many soldiers Ukraine commits to its defence and how well his own troops are supplied.
Russia’s overnight bombardment did not have a major impact on power, Ukraine’s energy minister said. German Galushchenko said Ukraine was meeting consumer demand for the fifth successive day. The national power grid operator, Ukrenergo, said it saw no need to introduce emergency power outages to conserve supplies.
Critical infrastructure was damaged in Russian strikes on the Lviv region in Ukraine’s west, the regional state administration’s head, Maksym Kozytskyi, reported on Telegram, adding there were no casualties.
Russia’s defence ministry said Ukraine had returned 101 prisoners of war to Russia following talks, state-run media reported. Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian president’s office, said 100 troops and one civilian had been returned to Ukraine. Nearly all had been defending the southern city of Mariupol before it fell to Russian forces, he said.
Russia has “definitely changed tactics” by using decoy missiles without explosive warheads and deploying balloons to fool Ukraine’s air defences, according to a senior Ukrainian official. The goal of the decoy missiles was to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defence systems by offering too many targets, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, told Associated Press.
Russian sortie rates have increased over the past week following several weeks of quieter activity, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has reported. Air activity is “now roughly in line with the average daily rate seen since summer 2022”, its latest intelligence update reads.
Russia “continues to introduce large numbers of troops” on to the battlefield in Ukraine, the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, has said. Those troops were “ill-equipped and ill-trained” and, as a result, Russian forces were “incurring a lot of casualties and we expect that that will continue”, he told reporters in Estonia.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to achieve their military aims, according to Gen Mark Milley, chair of the US joint chiefs of staff. In an interview with the Financial Times, Milley said he believed the war would end at the negotiating table. The Pentagon was re-examining its weapons stockpiles and may need to boost military spending after seeing how quickly ammunition has been used during the war in Ukraine, he added.
Belarus will fight alongside ally Russia if another country launches an attack against it, President Alexander Lukashenko has said, adding that he planned to meet the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, on Friday.
Regardless of whether you’re married, single, engaged, or swiping right on dating apps, I hope you feel loved today. It’s Valentine’s Day, a holiday unmistakably marked by the arrival of heart-shaped items and flower bouquets. Many around the world will celebrate their romance – but it’s also a wonderful time to honor friendship and companionship. Perhaps give your pets a longer cuddle, or maybe douse your plants with a little extra water. After all, they need love too.
Here’s what else you need to know to Get Up to Speed and On with Your Day.
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At least three people were killed and five others critically wounded in a mass shooting at Michigan State University on Monday night. A 43-year-old man identified as the suspect had no affiliation with the school, police said during a press conference this morning. The gunman opened fire at two campus locations, turning the university where over 19,000 students live into a crime scene and forcing terrified students to hide as hundreds of officers in tactical gear swarmed the school. The suspect died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound, authorities said, adding they have yet to establish a motive. The identities of the victims are not being released at this time.
The unidentified flying object shot down in Canadian airspace on Saturday appeared to be a “small, metallic balloon with a tethered payload below it,” according to a Pentagon memo sent to lawmakers on Monday. The object also crossed near “US sensitive sites” before it was shot down, the memo explained. These are the first official details from the Pentagon on the objects shot down in recent days. Meanwhile, lawmakers on Capitol Hill are pressing to gain a better understanding of why the Biden administration shot down the objects following the takedown of the Chinese spy balloon that traversed the US the previous weekend. It remains unclear if the events are connected. The Senate is set to hold a classified briefing today on the objects.
Ex-Trump official on what the unidentified objects could be
Amid the escalating conflict in Ukraine, analysts say new video appears to show heavy losses for Russian armored formations. The footage suggests failures in Moscow’s command and tactics as Russian forces prepare for a spring offensive. This comes as Russia is gearing up for a “maximum escalation” of the war, potentially as soon as the next few weeks, according to a top Ukrainian national security official. In response, Ukrainian officials are renewing calls for more advanced weaponry from Western allies to counter the threat. A group of 40 countries including the US has provided nearly $50 billion in “lethal assistance” to Ukraine since the start of Russia’s invasion last year, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said today.
Satellite images show ‘intense bombardment’ as Russian army faces heavy losses
A United Airlines 777 leaving Hawaii made a scary plunge toward the ocean shortly after takeoff, flight tracking data shows. The incident occurred in December when the plane dived toward the ocean for 21 seconds a little over a minute after takeoff. Neither United nor the FAA indicated anyone was injured on the flight. Still, passengers on board were startled after the plane lost more than half its altitude and came within 775 feet of sea level, according to data from FlightRadar24. “There were a number of screams on the plane,” a passenger told CNN. “Everybody knew that something was out of the ordinary, or at least that this was not normal.” United said it conducted an investigation with the FAA and the pilots union “that ultimately resulted in the pilots receiving additional training,” adding the investigation is ongoing.
Father recounts moment his United flight plunged toward the ocean
Flowers and trees are blooming up to three weeks earlier than normal in the Eastern US. Experts say changes in climate are ushering in many full blooms across parts of the country – when they should still be nearly a month away. Much of the “early spring” has to do with the warm start to 2023. Several parts of the South and Southeast are off to their top-10 warmest years on record, and many cities are seeing their top-five warmest: Houston, Jackson, Nashville and Atlanta. It is even more dramatic in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Philadelphia and New York City are experiencing their warmest start to the year on record, so the early bloom will most likely expand into the Northeast in the weeks ahead.
Several US mobile carriers suffer technical difficulties
Several US mobile carriers experienced technical difficulties Monday night. DownDetector, a website that tracks service problems and outages, indicated that AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon and Boost Mobile all experienced a spike in reports Monday night. It was unclear if the problems were connected.
Super Bowl ratings touchdown
The Super Bowl attracted 113 million viewers, the third most-watched TV program ever.
Dog runs away, makes 10-mile journey to a surprise destination
An adopted dog escaped her new owner and went on a solo journey for three days. See the surprising location where she was found.
‘SNL’ alums team up for a live comedy tour
Amy Poehler and Tina Fey are hitting the road together for a comedy tour starting this spring.
Revisiting ‘Titanic’ in theaters as an adult will open up an ocean of movie-going memories
Seeing “Titanic” in the ’90s is a core memory for many moviegoers. This is what it’s like to see the film re-released in theaters for its 25th anniversary.
Are you getting too much screen time?
On the “Chasing Life” podcast, Dr. Sanjay Gupta dives into the science behind how technology and social media are impacting our brains. He also speaks to one of the people he worries about most: his teenage daughter. Listen here.
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That’s how many months it has been since Hurricane Ian pummeled Southwest Florida. Still, many families are waiting for their insurance payouts and don’t have the money to rebuild. This has left many people homeless and others living in difficult or dangerous conditions. Some even tell CNN they’ve moved back into their moldy houses because they have nowhere else to go.
“With this legislation, we are protecting kids from harmful, permanent medical procedures.”
– South Dakota Republican Gov. Kristi Noem, after signing a bill Monday that will ban gender-affirming treatments for transgender minors in the state. The bill outlaws the prescription and administration of puberty-blocking medication in patients under the age of 18, as well as sex hormones and surgery related to gender transition. Opponents of the bill have said this measure would be harmful to transgender children and is a government intrusion into their medical decisions.
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How the US imports flowers for Valentine’s Day
Each year, more than 1 billion flowers come into the US to be sold on Valentine’s Day. See how the process is quickly completed before they wilt. (Click here to view)
The US military has shot down a third flying object over North American airspace in three days, as the air force general overseeing the airspace said he would not rule out any explanation for the objects yet.
The high-altitude unidentified object, described as an “octagonal structure” with strings attached to it, was shot down over Lake Huron in Michigan on Sunday.
It is understood to have been the same item that was picked up by radar over Montana on Saturday. At the point it was struck by an air-to-air missile launched by F-16 fighter jets, it had been flying across the Great Lakes region at 20,000ft, a height that could have posed a risk to civilian aircraft.
“I’m glad to report it has been swiftly, safely and securely taken down,” the state’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer, said.
The Pentagon said the object appeared to have travelled near US military sites and posed a threat to civilian aviation, as well as being a potential tool for surveillance.
Three unidentified flying objects have been downed in as many days, after a large balloon was shot down off the coast of South Carolina on 4 February. That object was claimed by China, although Beijing has insisted it was involved in innocent weather research.
Gen Glen VanHerck, who is tasked with safeguarding US airspace, said the military had not been able to identify what the three most recent objects were, how they stayed aloft, or where they were coming from.
VanHerck said the US had adjusted its radar so it could track slower objects, and that the three most recent objects were being called, “objects, not balloons, for a reason”.
Asked whether he had ruled out extraterrestrials, VanHerck said: “I’ll let the intel community and the counterintelligence community figure that out. I haven’t ruled out anything.”
A defence official subsequently told Reuters that the military had not seen any evidence that the objects were extraterrestrial.
A suspected spy balloon in the sky over Billings, Montana. Photograph: Chase Doak/AFP/Getty Images
Military personnel equipped with specialist diving gear designed for the extremely cold water of Lake Huron were expected to be deployed quickly to search for pieces of the destroyed object.
On Friday, an object about the size of a small car was downed off the coast of Alaska, followed by a similar flying object over Yukon, in Canada, on Saturday.
‘Unidentified object’ taken down over Canada, Justin Trudeau says – video
The US and Canadian military are attempting to recover the other objects that were shot down last week. Searches via sea and land are operating amid severe weather conditions.
The Democratic majority leader of the US Senate, Chuck Schumer, told ABC’s This Week on Sunday he had been briefed by the White House and that officials were now convinced that all of the first three flying objects were balloons. He put the finger of blame firmly on China.
“The Chinese were humiliated – I think the Chinese were caught lying,” he said. “It’s a real setback for them.”
Hours later a spokesperson for the White House national security council tried to tamp down some of Schumer’s rhetoric, saying it was too early to characterise the two latest flying objects shot down over Alaska and Canada. Definitive answers would have to wait for the debris to be recovered, the official said.
Schumer said US military and intelligence agencies were “focused like a laser” on gathering information on the flying objects and then analysing what steps needed to be taken to protect American interests in future. He called it “wild” that the US government had no idea about the balloon spying program until just “a few months ago”.
The Canadian military were attempting to reach pieces of the object that was taken down within Canadian airspace on Saturday. The vessel fell over a remote, rugged area of Yukon.
The object, described as cylindrical, had been flying at 40,000ft over Canadian territory and was considered a risk to civilian air traffic.
Searches by the US military were also continuing in difficult circumstances off the coasts of Alaska and South Carolina, with some debris from the first balloon to be destroyed – the largest of the four objects – having been retrieved and taken to military laboratories for analysis.
Though the Chinese government has admitted owning the balloon, it has insisted it was used only for weather research.
The Pentagon has disputed this, saying early indications suggest the balloon was carrying powerful equipment that could intercept communications. The balloon, flying at 60,000ft, was tracked by the US military for several days as it traversed the national airspace, having initially been spotted off the coast of Alaska on 28 January.
The air force decided to wait until it was over the Atlantic before shooting it down out of concern for civilians on the ground, the Pentagon said.
Schumer defended that decision on Sunday against mounting criticism from Republicans who have castigated Joe Biden for failing to act immediately. By following the balloon across the country, the US had gained “enormous intelligence” on what the Chinese were doing, he said.
Schumer predicted the entire object would be pieced back together in the coming days. “That’s a huge coup for the United States,” he told ABC’s This Week.
The confluence of four downed flying objects in a week has raised tensions on both sides of the US and Canadian border. and has generated political stresses internationally. The secretary of state, Antony Blinken, postponed the first visit to Beijing by a senior US diplomat since 2018 in response to the intrusion of the Chinese balloon.
In China, local news outlets cited by Bloomberg News reported on Sunday that the government was preparing to bring down an unidentified flying object said to have been spotted over the port of Qingdao. Fishers in the area had been told to be alert, according to the reports.
I keep grudges from companies. We don’t use Nike, due to the fact the organization embraced The us-hating previous quarterback Colin Kaepernick, and for a household with two immigrant mom and dad, blessed to be People in america, we can not abide this. I stopped using Gillette merchandise when their advert tore into boys and males as indignant feasible rapists. I have a husband, a brother and two sons and will not enable males to be depicted like that for ad. And our family members canceled a trip to Disney Entire world final calendar year just after the corporation inserted itself into the political discussion about Florida’s Parental Legal rights Regulation. Manhattan Institute senior fellow Chris Rufo showcased leaked videos from within the firm overtly discussing “adding queerness” into children’s programming.
Barring Disney from our lives didn’t truly feel good. This is a storied American firm. Its results is the epitome of the American desire. I needed a path back to remaining a Disney loved ones and looked for signs that it experienced figured out its lesson.
Disney was quiet just after the leak and went on to swap its CEO. Its pointed silence on political challenges led me to believe that it was switching, for the better. I was rooting for Disney to change itself around. So when I was invited to speak at a meeting held at Disney Planet final weekend, we built the simply call to go as a relatives and consider our children to the parks.
GOV. DESANTIS TARGETS DISNEY More than TAXES: ‘NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN’
We arrived at our resort late, and although my partner and I checked in, the young children watched a Tv set in the foyer. “I recall this exhibit from when I was minor,” my even now very little 7-year-outdated exclaimed. It was “The A few Caballeros,” his most loved.
As I appeared up the 12 months the film was manufactured (1944), I identified that Disney has inserted a disclaimer in advance of the film that notes: “This application incorporates adverse depictions and/or mistreatment of people or cultures. These stereotypes were mistaken then and are improper now. Alternatively than get rid of this material, we want to accept its destructive affect, discover from it and spark conversation to build a extra inclusive upcoming with each other.”
The disclaimer also seems right before films like “Aladdin,” “Dumbo” and “Peter Pan.” It’s a further attempt by Disney to placate the woke critics. What Disney really should learn, swiftly, is that those critics can by no means be placated.
On Wednesday, Disney introduced it would be laying off 7,000 staff and heading by means of its third restructuring in 5 several years. This is not a balanced organization. The parks, nevertheless, remain a brilliant location in the Disney portfolio and are some of the handful of revenue-producers that Disney has.
It’s not a coincidence that though the failing streaming service attempts to be at any time extra woke, the parks have fairly resisted it. But not solely. We acquired in the leaked videos that Disney no for a longer period utilizes “women and gentlemen” at the parks lest somebody truly feel they really do not healthy into both of individuals classes.
And like all tries to be “gender-neutral,” ladies get erased fully. The Bibbidi Bobbidi Boutique, where little women get their hair and make-up completed to become “Godmothers in education,” is now making use of the extra inclusive “Fairy Godmother’s Apprentices.” Just cannot allow anybody know girls exist!
Magic Kingdom shut the Splash Mountain ride since … properly, no a person is truly confident why. The motion picture on which it is based is referred to as “Tune of the South,” and the movie is referred to as “controversial” in posts about the trip closing, but it’s unclear what that controversy is.
I had hardly ever seen the movie, so I did substantial seeking about why it is verboten and at last uncovered an report that questioned, “Just How Racist Is Disney’s ‘Song of the South’?” Its summary: “It is pretty lousy.”
I was ready to read about all the racist imagery or commentary in the movie but instead uncovered that the challenge is the movie was ahistorical. “The difficulty is not always what Music of the South depicts, but what it chooses not to depict. Although Harris’ Uncle Remus stories had been established in Georgia immediately after the Civil War, the film adaptation in no way makes it very clear when the tale is getting spot.” And this is why kids can no longer go on a drinking water journey at an amusement park?
Disney World’s “it is really a tiny entire world” employs some of the same stereotypical depictions of cultures that Disney has explained to us are unacceptable.(Getty Photos)
If Disney thinks it has pacified the wokesters, it’s mistaken. Walking around the parks with an eye on what the woke will goal next is an training in finding “problematic” troubles everywhere. Disney Environment lavatory signage at the parks still has depictions of dresses for women and trousers for boys.
Uh-oh! “[I]t’s a little world” makes use of the identical stereotypical depictions of many cultures that Disney has educated us are unacceptable. The Corridor of Presidents has substantially that it “chooses not to depict” about each individual gentleman. There is no pacifying the rabid left, and the sooner Disney learns this, the superior.
We experienced cherished the Disney parks on previous visits. We had beloved the rides and the way everything just functioned nicely. The employees experienced been delighted and valuable. Although the parks are still productive, what we identified on this pay a visit to were parks in many states of disrepair.
A lot of of the rides we went on knowledgeable complex issues. It is not a massive offer until eventually you get to the really best of the Expedition Everest trip at Animal Kingdom, and the experience grinds to a halt when everyone in the vehicle Googles to obtain out why the area is littered with hair ties.
And like all attempts to be “gender-neutral,” women get erased fully. The Bibbidi Bobbidi Boutique, wherever little ladies get their hair and makeup done to turn into “Godmothers in coaching” is now using the a lot more inclusive “Fairy Godmother’s Apprentices.” Just cannot permit anyone know women exist!
The staff were grumpy, and the new Genie+ and Lightning Lane procedure was particularly perplexing and wildly high priced. Disney can trip on the achievements of the parks but for how extended? Its stock rate is down practically 25{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} considering that a calendar year in the past, appropriate all around the time it started off bending to the woke mob and building changes not in line with its corporation philosophy.
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The day we returned from Disney Environment, the tale broke about the controversy involving Disney’s “Proud Family members” cartoon. Clips from the display element a much-still left position of view and the pushing of leftist concepts like ending non-public prisons or spending reparations. It’s a display extra fascinated in woke indoctrination than enjoyment. Quick prediction: This show will fail, and Disney will shed ever a lot more income making an attempt to be woke.
We do not want to loathe Disney. We really do not want to see it ruined. But the have confidence in has been broken all over again and once more. Mother and father feel like they have to closely observe what Disney provides, lest the corporation sneak in just this form of indoctrination to their small children.
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This is unsustainable. Those of us however hoping that Disney can reverse program shed a small of that hope each and every time the organization does a thing obviously terrible for its organization. We may well feel of Disney as “as well big to fall short” currently, but a great deal of huge organizations have collapsed immediately after getting a completely wrong switch.
Disney is taking these types of a transform now. Regardless of its prevalence, wokeness is deeply unpopular in The usa. They are loud, but they are nowhere in close proximity to the majority. Disney is working out of time to see the gentle and go again to Walt Disney’s pro-American, professional-child eyesight that we all experienced recognized and cherished. Or we’ll be telling tales about a good American enterprise that at the time existed but fell for the woke virus and was killed by it.
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Karol Markowicz is a columnist at the New York Submit. She has also published for Time, United states Right now, The Observer, Heat Road, Federalist, Day by day Beast and in other places. Observe her on Twitter @Karol.
