High living costs solidify California’s two-tier economy

High living costs solidify California’s two-tier economy

In summary

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s crusade against the oil industry over gas prices missed the larger point that the cost of nearly everything in California is very high.

Why California is what it is – a state with an immense economy but equally immense socioeconomic divisions – is the topic of perpetual academic, media and political debates.

There is one factor, both a cause and an effect, that cannot be debated: California is an enormously expensive place in which to live and work. And if anything, the relatively high inflation that has plagued the national economy in recent years has exacerbated the angst that Californians were already feeling as they struggled to make ends meet.

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s crusade against gasoline refiners, accusing them of price-gouging, exploits that angst by virtue signaling to his constituents that he’s sympathetic to pain in their wallets. However, the state’s high fuel prices are just a tiny fragment of the state’s high cost of living and its corrosive effects.

How high? Insure.com, a website that analyzes insurance costs, recently updated its comprehensive, state-by-state guide to living costs of all kinds, and revealed that it costs 46.8{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} more to live in California than the national average – the third highest behind Hawaii’s 85.5{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} and 54{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in the District of Columbia.

Its high cost of living is the single most important reason why California, despite its world class economy, has the nation’s highest rate of functional poverty, as measured by the U.S. Census Bureau. Its supplemental poverty index is weighted for the cost of living and California’s high costs, especially for housing, drive the state’s ranking.

Moreover, when the near-poor are added, well over a quarter of Californians are suffering from serious economic stress, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.

High living costs, again particularly for housing, are also a major factor in California’s outflow of population to other states and thus its recent loss of population.

“Since 2015, California has experienced net losses of over 500,000 adults who cite housing as the primary reason, according to the Current Population Survey,” PPIC fellows Hans Johnson and Eric McGhee noted in a recent report. “About half of those who leave the state buy a house in their new state, whereas only one-third of those moving to California buy a house.”

California is several million housing units – the exact number is often debated – short of what it needs to house its people, even despite recent population drops. Despite much ballyhooed efforts at the state level to increase production, the gap between supply and demand remains largely unchanged, thus putting upward pressure on rents and home prices.

According to the World Population Review, California’s average rent, $1,586 a month, is the third highest in the nation, topped only by Hawaii and the District of Columbia, and also third highest behind those two markets in median home price at $538,500.

High home prices make ownership an impossible dream for millions of California families, thus explaining why the state has the nation’s second lowest level of families living in homes that they or their families own, 54.6{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}. New York is the lowest at 53.6{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}, thanks to New York City’s rental-dominated housing market.

A new study by Moneywise, a website devoted to consumer finance, reveals that first-time home buyers in California would have to cough up the nation’s second highest average down payment, $98,904, topped only by Hawaii’s $110,360.

California’s extremely high housing hurdles not only explain why so many residents are fleeing to other states, but why it’s so difficult for working-class families to build generational wealth via home ownership. It solidifies the state’s two-tier economy – white and Asian Californian majorities in its overclass and Black and Latino Californians dominating the underclass.

Political pontificating about gas prices really misses the point.

Is California’s economy heading for a recession?

Is California’s economy heading for a recession?

California’s financial state exploded as the point out emerged from a relatively temporary but severe recession prompted by business shutdowns that Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered in 2020 to battle the COVID-19 pandemic.

Nearly right away, extra than 2 million Californians shed their positions and the state’s unemployment fee skyrocketed to extra than 16{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}. Even so, once the constraints had been eased, the jobless charge little by little drifted downward to pre-pandemic concentrations, under 4{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}, and California employers uncovered it progressively difficult to fill their work opportunities.

The state’s experience on a dizzying financial rollercoaster may well not be more than.

Inflation is hitting premiums not witnessed in many years, a lot more than 8{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}, mainly since enormous quantities of federal expending, meant to counteract the financial consequences of pandemic, has overheated the economic climate, upsetting the supply-demand from customers balance.

The Federal Reserve System is speedily raising curiosity fees in hopes of cooling down the financial system but its hope for a “soft landing” is quite uncertain and there are escalating fears of a recession. In a perception, it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy as companies curtail hiring in anticipation of a economic downturn and those actions induce a decrease.

As the nation’s biggest condition, California is specifically exposed to countrywide and world wide financial currents. When the U.S. financial system catches a cold, California’s typically contracts pneumonia.

The Legislature’s spending plan analyst, Gabe Petek, warned of the state’s vulnerability last Might when examining Gov. Gavin Newsom’s revised budget.

“Predicting specifically when the next recession will come about is almost unachievable,” Petek instructed the Legislature. “Historically, on the other hand, particular economic indicators have made available warning symptoms that a economic downturn is on the horizon (and) a lot of of these indicators at this time recommend a heightened threat of a economic downturn inside of two several years.”

Citing inflation, a national drop in financial output, dropping property gross sales and other factors, Petek mentioned that “in the last five many years, a related selection of economic situations has occurred six situations. Each and every of those people 6 periods a recession has happened inside of two yrs (and generally quicker).”

Newsom’s spending plan, nonetheless, assumed that the state’s economy would go on to expand and crank out billions of tax pounds. Newsom boasted of a virtually $100 billion surplus and he and the Legislature energetically figured out means to expend it.

In the a few months considering that the $308 billion budget was enacted, the indications of slowdown — or possibly the commencing of economic downturn — have increased. Inflation has ongoing to rage, the Federal Reserve has ongoing to increase interest prices, the the moment-sizzling housing marketplace has cooled, the stock market has taken a beating and California tax revenues have fallen numerous billion bucks brief of the budget’s rosy assumptions.

This thirty day period, Petek released an up-to-date, and somewhat downbeat, review of the state’s economy and the chance of a earnings shortfall.

“At the time of our May perhaps outlook, we cautioned that financial indicators were being suggesting a slowdown could be on the horizon,” Petek reminded lawmakers. “More recent economic facts has ongoing to stage in this direction. Constant with this, our up-to-date estimates counsel collections from the state’s ‘big three’ taxes — individual revenue, profits, and company taxes — are far more probable than not to tumble under the Spending budget Act assumption of $210 billion.”

Following the funds was enacted, the Legislature sent dozens of bills to Newsom that, if signed, would increase as substantially as $30 billion in new expending. Citing that estimate, the governor has been vetoing paying out expenses with this warning: “With our condition experiencing lessen-than-anticipated revenues around the to start with couple of months of this fiscal 12 months, it is critical to continue being disciplined when it arrives to investing.”

Which is a outstanding alter of tone in just a couple of months.

Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist.