Hovnanian CEO Ara Hovnanian gives genuine estate outlook and shares worries that homebuyers may possibly deal with in advance of crucial season, on ‘Maria Bartiromo’s Wall Avenue.’
Experts say it can be “approximately extremely hard” for sellers to time the real estate industry just suitable. Even so, there is one 7 days in certain that offers them with the most favorable problems to listing a household, according to a recent report.
Nationally, April 16 through April 22 is regarded as “the sweet location” for sellers, according to economists at Real estate agent.com.
The week is slated to have the “finest mixture of larger charges, fewer residences to compete from, more rapidly profits time and robust purchaser need,” when compared to any other 7 days in the calendar year, according to the report.
Qualified Seems ALARM ON Higher Curiosity Prices Staying THE ‘NEW Regular,’ LEAVING Serious ESTATE ‘EXTREMELY CHALLENGED’
Residence costs
Historically, households for the duration of that 7-day extend shown charges 2.1{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} better than the common week through the yr and 12.1{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} better than the start of the 12 months, in accordance to Realtor.com.
A for sale indication is posted in entrance of a property for sale on February 20, 2023, in San Francisco, California. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Pictures / Getty Visuals)
With substantial checklist charges, sellers can potentially gain an added $48,000 or a lot more for their houses if they offer for the duration of this 7-day extend than if they had been to market at the starting of the calendar year, according to Realtor.com.
Desire
This 7 days also has observed higher desire from consumers. In many years previous, there have been 16.4{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} far more views per listing through this span of time, compared to the usual week throughout the 12 months. In 2022, it experienced 32.5{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} much more sights for every listing than the normal 7 days, according to Realtor.com.
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY AT History Lower, REPORT Suggests
With this kind of substantial demand from customers, households have a tendency to market quicker. In actuality, homes that had been for sale for the duration of that week flew off the sector 18{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} far more rapidly, in comparison to the common week, according to Realtor.com.
A for sale indicator is displayed outside a assets on Roxborough St. E. in Toronto, Ontario. (Lance McMillan/Toronto Star by means of Getty Images / Getty Illustrations or photos)
In 2022, homes have been finding scooped up just after only 32 days on the current market, which was 13 days more rapidly than the yr prior.
Properties aren’t predicted to move off the industry as quickly as they did last year, but they will be sold at a more rapidly speed than what has been witnessed in prior decades.
Inventory
Historically, there have been fewer sellers on the marketplace, in comparison to an regular week all over the year.
1st-TIME HOMEBUYERS BATTLING Immediate Decrease IN AFFORDABILITY: Numbers ‘JUST NOT WORKING’
There were “considerable stock gains” last year as need waned, in accordance to the report. In reaction, sellers started off pulling their listings.
A for sale indicator is exhibited outdoors a property on Elm Ave. in Toronto, Ontario. ((Lance McMillan/Toronto Star by way of Getty Pictures / Getty Illustrations or photos)
At the commencing of 2023, inventory was up 65.5{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}, compared with 2022. Even now, it was 43{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} reduced than pre-pandemic stages.
Even even though house loan fees are projected to continue being elevated through the year, “for-sale stock is nonetheless well below pre-pandemic concentrations, so sellers can even now anticipate perfectly-priced properties to be in substantial demand,” according to the report.
As of March 16, the price on the 30-year mounted property finance loan averaged 6.6{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}, which is drastically better than the regular of 4.16{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} a yr before, in accordance to mortgage loan customer Freddie Mac.
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Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater explained that “mortgage loan costs carry on their upward trajectory as the Federal Reserve indicators a extra aggressive stance on monetary policy.”
“Overall, consumers are paying in sectors that are not curiosity fee-sensitive, this kind of as vacation and eating out,” Khater reported. “Even so, price-delicate sectors, these kinds of as housing, go on to be adversely affected. As a end result, would-be homebuyers go on to face the compounding troubles of affordability and lower inventory.”
Sellers are sitting in the driver’s seat of today’s idling housing market. So why are they stalled behind the wheel?
Typically, as winter turns to spring, the housing market thaws. Sellers prepare their homes for showings and scrutiny, and buyers review their wish lists and budgets. But with home prices falling from their peaks in many areas, mortgage interest rates around 7{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}, and tons of economic uncertainty, many prospective sellers are still sitting on the sidelines. New home listings, the lifeblood of the real estate market, are down by double-digit percentages over last year.
For some home sellers, apprehension is leading to paralysis. They have plenty of questions: Will buyers show up ready to bid high despite the financial challenges they’re facing? How much should owners be spending on repairs and cosmetic touches to make their homes more appealing? And has the best moment to sell already passed?
While it’s still a seller’s market, the days when a homeowner could list a property that needs renovations, hasn’t been staged (or even cleaned), and receives 25 offers well over the asking price within a weekend are mostly over. Many buyers can’t afford the high prices and rates, so bidding wars have died down, as have offers coming in well over list prices. These days, many sellers are accepting lower offers as their homes languish on the market for months.
However, there are places where sellers have more of an advantage. These are the real estate markets where prices are still strong and homes are still selling briskly. And the data team at Realtor.com® found these top markets for sellers.
Many of these are smaller, more affordable metropolitan areas in the Midwest and South where regular buyers as well as investors can still find bargains.
“There’s a lot of talk about home prices down from the peak,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “But year over year, a lot of markets are still up.”
Many sellers have been reluctant to list their homes, resulting in about 10{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} fewer properties going up for sale in January and February compared with the previous year. One main reason: Most sellers are also buyers, and these days they don’t relish the idea of giving up their current low mortgage rates and emerging into a tight, expensive buyer’s market with much higher rates.
The good news for sellers is the high home equity many have built during the past few years. Even if they can’t get as much as their neighbors did during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, their homes have still likely increased in value if they’ve had them for a few years.
“Focusing on the very recent fluctuation in prices, you might miss the forest for the trees,” says Hale. “Even if people don’t get the maximum sales price they might have six months ago, the equity is still usually going to equate to a lot of cash. [That] gives them options for their next move.”
To find areas that offer better market conditions for sellers, we looked at the top 150 metropolitan markets over the past year. We focused on those where homes are selling faster than in most of the country and where the price per square foot has risen the most annually. (Metros include the main city and surrounding towns, suburbs, and smaller urban areas.)
In almost every city across the country, the time spent on the market has gone up year over year. In February, homes spent a couple of days short of 10 weeks on the market. That’s up from February 2022, when homes spent about six and a half weeks on the market.
We limited our list to just one metro per state to ensure geographic diversity.
Here’s a look at where sellers can expect to have more welcoming conditions right now.
February median list price: $208,700 Year-over-year increase in price per square foot: +38.4{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}
If there’s a housing downturn, someone forgot to tell the good folks of Davenport.
The metro area straddles the Mississippi River, along the border with Illinois, and includes Bettendorf on the Iowa side and two smaller cities on the Illinois side, Moline and Rock Island. The city’s location on a waterway has helped establish it as a regional transportation and trade hub.
It’s also been one of the more affordable markets in the country for a long time. That might help protect it from the current slowdown that’s swept the national housing market.
“We’re very insulated here from a lot of the national trends,” says Delia Dreifurst, a Realtor® at Keller Williams Midwest Partners in Bettendorf.
“The price point is so much lower than on the coasts,” she continues, “so we sit in this sweet spot, where homes still appreciate but they’re also still affordable.”
With a median listing price just below $209,000 in February, Davenport homes cost around half of the national median list price of $414,950, according to the most recent Realtor.com data.
Astonishingly, those prices are up almost 40{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} compared with the same time last year. On top of that, homes are selling faster now than they did a year ago—one of only five of the 150 largest metros across the U.S. where the time homes spent on the market is less now than last February.
The number of homes for sale isn’t enough to satisfy demand, Dreifurst says. So homes that are priced right still receive multiple offers.
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Watch: The Top Real Estate Markets of 2023, Revealed
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February median list price: $301,165 Year-over-year increase in price per square foot: +26.5{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}
Alabama’s capital city, Montgomery, is beckoning sellers to put their homes on the block as prices continue rising. But like Davenport, home prices are still well below the national average.
Those lower prices have attracted the interest of Californians. Two-thirds of all the web traffic to listings in the city come from the state, mostly from Los Angeles or the San Francisco Bay Area, where prices can be three to four times higher.
Montgomery, like many U.S. cities, has had its share of struggles. But its downtown has been revitalized over the past several years, heralding real economic growth.
February median list price: $319,995 Year-over-year increase in price per square foot: +19.8{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}
Wichita has gone from “Cowtown,” a nickname earned by its history as a popular cattle drive destination, to the aviation capital of the nation. It’s now home to companies such as Airbus, Learjet, and Cessna. Fueled by a strong local economy, it’s also a good place to sell a home.
Among all the cities on the list, Wichita has seen the biggest increase in price per square foot since the middle of 2022, a time when many markets began to see prices stagnate or tick down. The median listing price in Wichita has increased 17.5{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} since June of last year.
Tim Shigley, the owner of Shigley Construction Co. in Wichita, says the biggest reason prices keep rising there is because of the shortage of homes, which is caused by a shortage in the home construction workforce.
“We’re about 20,000 or 30,000 houses short,” Shigley says. “If we had another few thousand skilled construction workers, we might be able to catch up, but it would take years.”
February median list price: $354,262 Year-over-year increase in price per square foot: +18.5{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}
Like Wichita, Tulsa has seen a significant price bump since the middle of 2022, when other markets ran out of steam. Since June 2022, the price per square foot is up 13{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}.
However, prices have remained quite reasonable in Tulsa compared with the rest of the nation. It was named one of the best places for middle-class homebuyers by Realtor.com. And the city has some of the most affordable mansions in the country.
Tulsa has especially high buyer interest from out of state, particularly from Chicago, where home prices are about 17{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} higher, and Dallas, where home prices are about 22{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} higher, according to demand data tracked by Realtor.com.
A two-bedroom home within walking distance of the Arkansas River in Tulsa’s Maple Ridge neighborhood goes for about $325,000.
February median list price: $151,575 Year-over-year increase in price per square foot: +18.1{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}
Youngstown, located about halfway between Cleveland and Pittsburgh, is by far the least expensive metro in this ranking. The Rust Belt city fell on hard times when the steel mills closed and many residents left the area. But the area is now gaining interest from buyers on the prowl for affordable real estate.
There aren’t as many homes for sale compared with much of the rest of the country. This puts sellers in a better position as buyers are forced to compete over what’s available. And homes aren’t withering on the market in Youngstown—days on the market have grown by just four compared with this time last year.
February median list price: $434,950 Year-over-year increase in price per square foot: +17.1{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}
As home to the Mall of America, the largest shopping center in the U.S., as well as the headquarters for megacorporations like Target, Best Buy, and General Mills, Minneapolis has a largely bulletproof housing market. It’s by far the biggest market on this list, with more than 3.6 million residents in the metro area. It’s also the priciest.
“Big cities are expensive,” Hale says. “What you get in Minneapolis is a big city, but without the much larger price tag that usually comes with them.”
In fact, until just the past few months, the median home listing price in Minneapolis was below the national median. But growing demand tilted the market into the less-affordable-than-average column.
Right now, Minneapolis also ties for the lowest number of days that listings spend on the market. The average Minneapolis listing is spending around 7 weeks on the market, about three weeks less than the national average.
February median list price: $283,000 Year-over-year increase in price per square foot: +16.4{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}
Home prices in the McAllen metro area, which abuts the U.S.-Mexico border near the southern tip of Texas, continue to rise despite the challenges in the housing market.
McAllen offers a stark contrast to state capital Austin, where home prices skyrocketed over the past several years, but has lately seen one of the sharpest home price declines—a 15{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} median listing price decline since peaking in April of last year.
“We see the McAllen market kind of float above everybody else,” says Roy A. Sawyer, real estate agent at Century 21 Muniz Realty in McAllen.
Sawyer says he’s met with potential sellers who need some coaching before they decide to take the leap, but he often gives people the same advice.
“If you need to buy, buy now. Start building that equity. If you need to sell, sell now. Put your equity to use,” he says. “The best time is now.”
February median list price: $322,400 Year-over-year increase in price per square foot: +16.1{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}
Harrisburg, recently named one of the best places in the country to retire by U.S. News & World Report, is another state capital that made the list. The city is about an hour and 20 minutes north of Baltimore and nearly two hours northwest of Philadelphia.
The area is continuing to see plenty of demand from folks coming from different parts of the country, especially New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.
A classic four-bedroom home in the Harrisburg suburbs goes for about $330,000.
February median list price: $304,245 Year-over-year increase in price per square foot: +15.9{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}
Arkansas’ capital city, Little Rock, is a dynamic college town (University of Arkansas, Philander Smith College), with a bustling downtown river walk district that helps impart an urban feel to the Southern capital. Homes here keep gaining in value, despite the national slowdown.
The metro had some of the biggest home price increases in the nation last year, according to a Realtor.com analysis. It also tied with Minneapolis for the lowest median number of days spent on the market, at just a hair more than seven weeks.
That’s all great news for sellers eager for a swift, profitable sale.
Right now, the average home price in Little Rock will get a small, three-bedroom home built in 1920 in the historic and desirable Hillcrest neighborhood.
February median list price: $457,116 Year-over-year increase in price per square foot: +13.0{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}
Real estate prices in this city, home to the University of Tennessee, have continued to rise. That’s distinguished it from nearby, pricier Nashville, where prices have dropped around 4{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} from their high in June 2022. (The median home list price in Nashville was about $510,000 in February.)
Regina Santore, a Realtor at Coldwell Banker Wallace in Knoxville, says she still regularly sees homes that get multiple offers.
“We did have a brief, quiet moment late last year, when everyone kind of held their breath wondering if the bottom would fall out of the housing market,” she says.
But that passed and things are moving fast again.
“I just had a listing in the university area that was booked for showings every half-hour for two days,” she says. “There were nine offers, and it went for $45,000 over the asking price. No contingencies. No inspection.”
A developing variety of Londoners are opting for novel indicates of acquiring and promoting their properties, with WhatsApp emerging as a new house for luxurious listings.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
LONDON — In attempting occasions for the U.K. authentic estate market place, a escalating selection of Londoners are opting for novel usually means of getting and promoting their homes, with WhatsApp emerging as a new home for luxurious listings.
Off-current market property profits surged in the British capital in the last a few months of 2022, in accordance to U.K. estate agents Hamptons Worldwide, accounting for much more than just one-in-5 (22.3{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}) transactions — its optimum percentage on record.
The uptick coincides with a time period of turmoil for the U.K. assets industry, throughout which lenders pulled hundreds of household mortgage loan promotions and new homebuyer enquiries plunged pursuing then Prime Minister Liz Truss’ chaotic “mini-spending plan.”
Hamptons senior analyst, David Fell, mentioned that led some distributors to “exam the h2o” discretely devoid of leaving a “digital footprint” and likely hurting potential sale prospective customers.
Sellers have been increasingly on the lookout to take a look at pricing quietly without leaving a digital footprint.
David Fell
senior analyst, Hamptons Global
“Sellers have been ever more hunting to check pricing quietly with no leaving a electronic footprint, particularly if they chose to acquire their residence off the market place with a check out to seeking yet again in 6 or 12 months’ time,” he mentioned.
But the determine also marks a continued increase in non-public assets sales in new yrs.
Personal residence profits have virtually tripled in London because 2018, when they created up just 8.8{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of yearly transactions vs . 21.2{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in 2022, according to the company. Non-public profits have also risen nationwide about the time period, while to a lesser extent.
London’s luxurious serious estate marketplace, in distinct, has led the off-marketplace craze.
Personal revenue of £1 million-additionally ($1.2 million) homes accounted for practically 1-third (32{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}) of the capital’s whole key serious estate transactions in the remaining quarter of 2022, and 29{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} above the yr, in accordance to Hamptons’ info produced very last thirty day period.
Savills estate agents famous that the “anonymity” of such transactions is primarily valued by prospective buyers and sellers of homes in the £20 million-furthermore variety — both in London and the encompassing counties.
“In the previous quarter of 2022 in the property counties we did see the mind-boggling greater part of £20m+ income staying carried out off-market place,” Crispin Holborow, state director of The Personal Business office at Savills, advised CNBC by means of email.
James Myers, director of London-primarily based key genuine estate company Oliver James, informed CNBC an expanding selection of substantial-end non-public transactions are also getting executed by using messaging applications like WhatsApp.
With more people today employing WhatsApp, it’s tested to be a much a lot easier technique for estate agents to contact clients, clients etcetera.
“WhatsApp has been an massive advantage to estate agents in recent many years,” Myers claimed. “With far more men and women applying WhatsApp, it truly is proven to be a significantly less difficult technique for estate brokers to get hold of clientele, clients and so forth.”
In particular, Myers observed that supplemental capabilities readily available inside the WhatsApp Business app have manufactured it easier to share houses with a number of would-be purchasers while even now preserving the listing discrete.
The app’s “Catalogs” aspect, for instance, which was introduced in late-2019, functions as a brochure for businesses to showcase photographs of numerous products and solutions. Previously, businesses experienced to send merchandise photos 1 at a time and regularly offer details.
“With the added advantage of the new equipment … it [has] permitted estate agents to endorse their homes by way of the brochure part, which, as a consequence, has served to showcase house to a broader viewers and assist the sale of residence,” reported Myers.
When contacted by CNBC, Meta, Whatsapp’s mother or father firm, said “folks want to do company the exact way they chat with their mates and relatives.”
Nevertheless, even though the off-marketplace craze is established to continue on into 2024, Hamptons’ Fell mentioned that many sellers may well also use non-public listings as a way to choose buyer hunger prior to heading on to list on the open up sector.
“We will also most likely see additional sellers start existence off-sector before determining to sector their dwelling a lot more broadly if response from ‘black book’ consumers was favorable but they even now were not rather equipped to safe a sale,” he said.
Tesla stock fell another 8.8{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} on Thursday, bringing its year-to-date losses to 64{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}.
With this decline, more than $800 billion in market capitalization has been erased from the electric carmaker. The current 69.7{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} drawdown from its most recent high reached in late 2021 is the largest in Tesla’s corporate history.
And this slide has been good news to short-sellers.
Data from S3 Partners published Thursday showed that through Wednesday’s close, Tesla was the year’s most profitable short — or stock traders were betting against — with mark-to-market profits totaling $15.03 billion so far this year. And these figures don’t reflect Thursday’s decline.
“In December, TSLA shorts are up $4.54 billion in month-to-date mark-to-market profits, up +33.2{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} on an average short interest of $13.67 billion,” S3 Partners said in its report. “Since Elon Musk’s Twitter bid on 4/14/22, TSLA shorts are up $13.74 billion in mark-to-market profits, up 77.5{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} on an average short internet of $17.74 billion.”
Short interest in Tesla has surged in the last few months and shares have fallen to multi-year lows. (Source: S3 Partners)
And the next most-profitable short this year isn’t even close — short-sellers have made $6.2 billion betting against Amazon in 2022, a stock that was down 49.7{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} so far this year through Thursday’s close.
The notion that Musk’s involvement with Twitter is the predominant issue facing Tesla shares has become a widely held view in recent weeks. Consensus, even.
Wall Street analysts have said Musk “needs to pull it together,” while slashing price targets and downgrading Tesla along the way. Some of Musk’s most ardent defenders have openly begun calling for him to step away from Twitter.
And, to an extent, Musk himself seems to agree, hosting a poll on whether he should step down as Twitter’s chief and saying he will resign the post once a replacement is found.
This is all coming as reports indicate Tesla has brought in leaders from its team in Shanghai to help steady U.S. operations while the company is now offering $7,500 rebates to U.S. customers willing to take delivery of some models before the end of this year.
That Musk’s attention appears to be lacking at Tesla is not news to Musk.
Elon Musk, Founder and Chief Engineer of SpaceX, attends the Satellite 2020 Conference in Washington, DC, United States on March 9, 2020. (Photo by Yasin Ozturk/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Meanwhile, the Tesla CEO has tweeted at length about the impact tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve is having on all financial assets, Tesla included.
Looking at the success of short-sellers this year, there’s little doubt the challenges for markets go beyond the CEO of Tesla having a second job as the CEO at Twitter: Data from S3 Partners also shows shorts are up more than $300 billion in realized and unrealized gains this year.
In a widely-covered exchange on Twitter earlier this week, Musk chided longtime Tesla bull Ross Gerber to read Security Analysis 101 to understand what is happening to Tesla stock.
Musk added in a follow-up tweet: “As bank savings account interest rates, which are guaranteed, start to approach stock market returns, which are *not* guaranteed, people will increasingly move their money out of stocks into cash, thus causing stocks to drop.”
As Warren Buffett told Yahoo Finance editor-in-chief Andy Serwer years ago: “Everything in valuation gets back to interest rates.”
At the time of Buffett’s comments back in 2017, investors were perhaps puzzled why stocks continued to rise so aggressively. Rock bottom interest rates were a helpful guide then. Now, investors face the opposite problem — elevated and still-rising rates are crushing financial assets.
Hedge fund titan David Tepper said Thursday he’s still “leaning short” on stocks right now because he believes what central bankers are saying: that interest rates will go higher next year.
For Tesla shorts — and short-sellers across the market — the Fed’s plans may remain welcome news. And Wall Street strategists broadly expect bets against the stock market will still work in the first half of 2023.
If an anticipated recession finally pushes the Fed and other central banks to ease off the accelerator, expect stocks to rebound abruptly. And don’t expect Tesla to be left out.
Of course, none of this is very “Tesla.”
Tesla has been a battleground stock for so many years because the company’s ambitions — and the persona of its CEO — have always seemed to transcend mundane market talking points like Fed policy. Boring stocks, not category-definers like Tesla, get pushed around by central banks.
Though perhaps this market moment is telling us something else about the maturation of Tesla, signaling it is now becoming more like every other stock. And in this way offering the bulls a new story, which is that it might simply start fitting in.
What to Watch Today
Economy
8:30 a.m. ET: Personal Income, month-over-month, November (0.3{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, 0.7{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Personal Spending, month-over-month, November (0.2{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, 0.8{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Real Personal Spending, month-over-month, November (0.1{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, 0.5{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: PCE Deflator, month-over-month, November (0.1{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, 0.3{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: PCE Deflator, year-over-year, November (5.5{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, 6.0{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: PCE Core Deflator, month-over-month, November (0.2{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, 0.2{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: PCE Core Deflator, year-over-year, November (4.6{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, 5.0{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Durable Goods Orders, November Preliminary (-1.0{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, 1.1{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Durables Excluding Transportation, November Preliminary (0.0{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, 0.5{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft, November Preliminary (0.0{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, 0.6{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Non-Defense Capital Goods Shipments Excluding Aircraft, November Preliminary (-0.3{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, 1.5{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)
10:00 a.m. ET: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, December final (59.1 expected, 59.1 prior)
10:00 a.m. ET: New Home Sales, November (600,000 expected, 632,000 during prior month)
10:00 a.m. ET: New Home Sales, month-over-month, November (-5.1{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, 7.5{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)
Earnings
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