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The economy is flashing positive signs. Is it time to exhale?

The economy is flashing positive signs. Is it time to exhale?

With additional reporting from Ari Hawkins

BACK IN BUSINESS — You probably missed it in the Category Five hurricane of news slamming U.S. shores regarding the criminal indictment of a certain rambunctious former president.

But some decidedly positive news about the U.S. economy arrived today in the form of a very welcome dip in the rate of consumer inflation that could make it easier for the Federal Reserve to slow or even stop its campaign of inflating-fighting interest rate hikes before it drives the U.S. economy into recession.

The Commerce Department today reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditure index (PCE) rose 0.3 percent in February, excluding the volatile food and energy components. That was lower than the 0.4 percent Wall Street consensus and down from 0.5 percent in January.

On an annualized basis, this so-called “core PCE” measure — the Holy Grail of inflation numbers for the Fed — rose 4.6 percent in February, down a touch from 4.7 percent in January.

The headline inflation number, which includes food and energy, looked even better, dipping to 5.0 percent in February from 5.3 percent in January and hitting its lowest level since September of 2021.

These numbers remain well above the Fed’s target of around 2 percent annual inflation. But they suggest that all the hikes — which arguably helped drive the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and have wreaked havoc on the broader tech industry — are starting to really win the battle against a run of four-decade high inflation that followed the Covid pandemic.

That run, which created widespread economic misery and crushed President Joe Biden’s approval ratings, peaked last summer at over 7 percent as measured by core PCE and even higher as measured by the Consumer Price Index. It’s now pretty clearly receding, helping to drive solid rallies on Wall Street today. The Nasdaq closed out the first quarter up 16 percent and the S&P finished the first three months of the year up 7 percent, easing some of the pain for Americans now used to opening up dismal 401(k) updates.

The readings come after the Fed earlier this month declined to curtail its rate hiking campaign even in the wake of the dramatic collapse and federal rescue of SVB and Signature Bank. Those moves by the Fed implicitly guaranteed all deposits, even those over the insured limit of $250,000, at every FDIC-backed bank in the nation.

And it likely means the Fed could decide to hold off on another rate hike at its next meeting in May or at most issue one more quarter point hike. The central bank may then be able to start to cut rates late this year or early next assuming inflation continues to fall as the economy cools off.

That would once again put the fabled “soft-landing” back in play. In this best case scenario, the Fed defeats inflation without causing growth to turn negative for multiple quarters and unemployment to rise by a significant amount — the hallmarks of recession.

That is the chain of events that Biden and Democrats are fervently praying for to give the president a solid shot at winning a second term next November. His biggest selling points are a continued hot labor market and rising wages, especially among lower-income earners.

Should the Fed need to administer more beatings to the economy in the form of multiple additional rate hikes, recession would almost certainly ensue and Biden would be in deep trouble, even if he winds up running against an indicted (and perhaps convicted?) Donald Trump.

For the moment, the White House can roll into the weekend fairly confident the recent banking crisis is contained and the Fed is not likely to be wielding a sledge hammer to crush Biden’s hopes of becoming the oldest president to ever win a second term.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at [email protected]. Or contact tonight’s author at [email protected] or on Twitter at @EconomyBen. Talk to him about his piece, or wish him a Happy Birthday (it’s today)!

— Trump plans to turn himself in: Trump is expected to turn himself over to local law enforcement on Tuesday. Plans are in motion for the unprecedented arraignment in New York, which is expected around 2:15 pm Tuesday according to a rough schedule shared by the campaign.

— Bragg defends Trump indictment against GOP attacks: Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg issued his first public response to Hill Republicans since news of the former president’s indictment, defending his office’s decision in a letter to lawmakers today. He rejected GOP accusations of political persecution as “baseless and inflammatory,” and pleaded with Capitol Hill Republicans to encourage calm. But Bragg’s office also accused them of engaging in “unlawful political interference.”

— IRS rules for electric cars unveiled after months of attacks: The Biden administration announced rules today that will make it harder for many electric vehicles to qualify for federal tax breaks — but could, over the long term, foster the growth of entire new U.S.-based industries built around clean energy. The proposed guidance from Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service aims to thread the needle between two of the climate law’s main goals — getting people to buy electric vehicles by making them more affordable, while ensuring that the U.S. and its closest trading partners reap the economic and security benefits.

— Biden-backed California rule pushes clean trucks: California will require more zero emission trucks on the roads after a key Biden administration approval, a move that is bound to transform the country’s truck market. The nation-leading Advanced Clean Trucks rule, first passed in 2020 and backed by the EPA today, sets a timeline for manufacturers to phase out most gas-powered heavy-duty vehicles by 2035. At least six states — Massachusetts, Vermont, New York, New Jersey, Washington and Oregon — have already moved to adopt the rule, meaning it will cover almost a quarter of the nation’s auto market.

INDICTMENT EFFECT — The indictment of Trump is likely to deliver a temporary boost to him in the GOP primary —but at the expense of his standing among the broader electorate that will ultimately decide whether he returns to the White House, reports POLITICO’s Steven Shepard. Over the past month, as the prospect of criminal charges hung over Trump, the former president was actually increasing his national advantage over DeSantis, who hasn’t officially entered the race yet, among GOP voters. The indictment does little to threaten that lead, at least in the short term — as evidenced by DeSantis and the other declared or likely candidates decrying the charges on Thursday.

HOW IT’S PLAYING IN PA — Trump has divided Pennsylvania for years. The leaked news of his indictment was no different, reports the Philadelphia Inquirer. Pennsylvania Republican allies rallied behind him. Democrats applauded the prosecution as a sign of justice in motion. And both sides speculated what it could mean for his 2024 presidential campaign.

THREE QUESTIONS WITH… Jon McHenry, a Republican campaign pollster who is vice president of the North Star Opinion Research firm.

What’s the most important state to watch in this early stage of the GOP primary?

Obviously I’m going to say New Hampshire. South Carolina is most like the Republican primary electorate now, but New Hampshire will be the first place that someone can really pop Trump, it will be a test of whether DeSantis can do well with an emphasis on retail politics, and the inclusion of undeclared voters in the GOP primary will be a test of some appeal in the general election, especially if Biden doesn’t receive a serious challenge.

What effect might the Trump/DeSantis relationship have on the primary?

A lot of this race could come down to how DeSantis deals with Trump. Trump seems to be obsessed with DeSantis, in a way that, honestly, should be beneath a former president of the United States. Does DeSantis deal with Trump in a way that makes him seem like the person with real credibility? Does DeSantis get in the sandbox with Trump and look like a baby? Can DeSantis pull off the moment in a debate like when Al Gore was pacing too close to W. and W. gives him a dismissive look?

Which Republican candidate would be most difficult — and easiest — for Biden to run against in the 2024 race?

The easiest candidate for Biden is obviously Trump. He’s beaten him before, and will beat him again. The hardest candidate for Biden, I think, is Nikki Haley. She’s a better candidate than Biden, 30 years younger, and Biden will screw up talking to a woman every day of the week. He’s a mortal lock to say something sexist in one debate and irredeemably condescending in the next.

AI CRACKDOWN — The Italian privacy regulator ordered a ban on ChatGPT today over alleged privacy violations, writes Clothilde Goujard.

The national data protection authority said it will immediately block and investigate OpenAI, the U.S. company behind the popular artificial intelligence tool, from processing the data of Italian users. The order is temporary until the company respects the EU’s landmark privacy law, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).

Calls to suspend new ChatGPT releases and investigate its maker OpenAI over a range of risks for privacy, cybersecurity and disinformation are growing on both sides of the Atlantic. Elon Musk and dozens of AI experts this week called for a pause to updates of ChatGPT.

Consumer advocacy group BEUC also called on March 30 for EU and national authorities including data protection watchdogs to investigate ChatGPT.

INFLATION EASES — Eurozone inflation dropped at a record rate to 6.9 percent in March, driven by a sharp decline in energy prices compared to the same month last year, data released by the European statistics agencies showed today, writes Johanna Treeck.

While welcome news, the numbers will not have the European Central Bank in Frankfurt popping Champagne corks as they also showed so-called core inflation continued to rise. Core inflation measures filter out volatile food and energy components and are seen as a bellwether for future inflation trends.

POWER PLAYERS — Who shaped the intersection of race, culture, politics and policy in America in 2022? It’s a diverse group — from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to the labor organizer Chris Smalls. POLITICO’s The Recast is back with profiles of the 40 power players who had an outsized impact on everything from passing laws to working to defeat health crises last year. None of them show any signs of slowing down. Check out the full list here.

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Student teachers should spend more time on practical skills, less time on philosophy of education, panel recommends | Australian education

Student teachers should spend more time on practical skills, less time on philosophy of education, panel recommends | Australian education

Student teachers should spend more time on practical skills and less time on the history and philosophy of education, an expert panel has recommended.

The teacher education expert panel, set up by the federal government to improve teaching courses and address workforce shortages, released its discussion paper on Thursday, outlining plans to radically reform degrees.

It proposed strengthening standards for initial teacher education (ITE) programs and placing greater accountability on universities to prove their success rates.

The chair of the panel, the University of Sydney vice-chancellor, Mark Scott, said teaching degrees should be geared towards evidence-based, practical outcomes to best prepare teachers for the demands of the job.

“We need to make teachers’ lives easier and make sure they spend their time doing what they came into the profession for – teaching,” he said.

“Initial teacher education can play a significant role in making sure our future teachers are properly prepared for the classroom and that they are spending time on the things that will improve student learning.

“Teachers will spend their careers dealing with complex and diverse classrooms so they need better support to effectively teach in all environments.”

Scott said increasing the number of mid-career entrants into teaching would also be key to addressing shortages hitting the sector.

In a major shake-up, the paper also recommended luring mid-career entrants to postgraduate teaching courses with shorter degrees, paid employment opportunities and part-time study options.

“We know mid-career entrants generally have greater personal and financial responsibilities and the loss of income during study, the length of an ITE program and competing commitments … can be significant barriers to making the switch,” Scott said.

“The panel has identified opportunities … to support mid-career entrants into teaching by getting them into the classroom sooner and improving the flexibility of available postgraduate ITE programs.”

The panel suggested funding could be tied to individual program performance, requiring universities to disclose dropout rates and publicly report on how well prepared its students were to enter the classroom.

Dropout rates in teaching degrees are among the highest industry-wide, sitting at about 50{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}.

Reports would increase the accountability of universities and provide students with more publicly available information to choose providers. High performers would then be rewarded with additional federal government funding.

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The education minister, Jason Clare, said not enough people who started a teaching degree were finishing them.

Enrolments in ITE programs have dropped by about 20{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in the past decade amid critical teacher vacancy rates and an ageing teacher workforce.

“In the first few months in this job I have got a better insight into how hard and complex the work of being a teacher is,” Clare said.

“The work of the expert panel will be important in helping us to strengthen initial teacher education, increase completion rates and deliver more classroom ready graduates.”

The University of Sydney deputy vice-chancellor, Prof Joanne Wright, said initial teacher education was the starting point of the system and a “significant part” of the solution to workforce shortages.

“The review is a welcome opportunity to reshape courses so they address the complex challenges that teachers are facing today,” she said.

“Initial teacher education plays a significant role in making sure our future teachers are properly prepared for the classroom and that they are spending time on the things that will improve student learning.”

The Australian Education Union’s president, Correna Haythorpe, said many of the issues raised in the paper directly reflected the experiences of its members and a discussion about the quality of courses was “long overdue”.

“The AEU’s early service teaching members regularly report feeling inadequately prepared for the reality of the classroom when they graduate,” she said.

“Inadequate support and inequitable school funding contributes to escalating teacher workloads and to the high turnover of teachers leaving the profession after just a few short years in the classroom.”

Haythorpe also welcomed the recognition that income loss during lengthy unpaid placements, as reported by Guardian Australia, was a “major hurdle” for students.

“The AEU has been calling for paid placements and will highlight this need in our response to the discussion paper,” she said.

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March Madness 2023: Princeton shocks Arizona, No. 15 upsets a No. 2 for 11th time in NCAA Tournament history

March Madness 2023: Princeton shocks Arizona, No. 15 upsets a No. 2 for 11th time in NCAA Tournament history

Princeton pulled an NCAA Tournament stunner on Thursday, when the No. 15 seed Tigers upset No. 2 seed Arizona 59-55 in the first round. It marks the third straight NCAA Tournament in which a No. 15 seed has upset a No. 2 seed after Saint Peter’s beat Kentucky in 2022 and Oral Roberts beat Ohio State in 2021 and the 11th time in tournament history.

Arizona guard Kerr Kriisa had a chance to tie the game with five seconds left on a 3-point look from the left wing, but it bounced off, which allowed the Tigers to clinch the game at the free-throw line.

Tosan Evbuomwan led Princeton with 15 points. Azuolas Tubelis led Arizona with 22 points, and Oumar Ballo contributed 13 points and 12 rebounds. However, the Wildcats were outscored 11-2 in second-chance points. With the loss, Arizona is now 6-2 all-time as a No. 2 seed in first-round games and the only program to lose twice against a No. 15 seed in the first-round.

It marks the Tigers’ first NCAA Tournament win since 1998, when coach Mitch Henderson, 47, was a player on the team. With the win, the Ivy League champions advance to play No. 7 seed Missouri in the second round on Saturday. Arizona opened up a 31-22 edge late in the first half before Princeton closed the half on an 8-0 run. Then, in the second half, the Wildcats led 47-35 with just under 12 minutes to play before Princeton rallied again.  

No. 15s over No. 2s

After Princeton’s victory vs. Arizona, No. 2 seeds are 11-139 vs. No. 15 seeds all-time in the NCAA Tournament.

Year Result Score
1991 Richmond def. Syracuse 73-69
1993 Santa Clara def. Arizona 64-61
1997 Coppin State def. South Carolina 78-65
2001 Hampton def. Iowa State 58-57
2012 Lehigh def. Duke 75-70
2012 Norfolk State def. Missouri 86-84
2013 Florida Gulf Coast def. Georgetown 78-68
2016 Middle Tennessee def. Michigan State 90-81
2021 Oral Roberts def. Ohio State 75-72
2022 Saint Peter’s def. Kentucky 85-79
2023 Princeton def. Arizona 59-55

No flukes

If you’re perusing the box score for some flukey explanation of how Princeton won, good luck. The Tigers made only 4 of 25 attempts from 3-point range and shot just five free throws. Evbuomwan led Princeton with just 15 points, and it’s not as though Arizona had a star player out due to injury or foul trouble.

Princeton matched Arizona in every facet and won this game with its defense, limiting one of the nation’s most high-powered offenses to a season-low with 55 points. Arizona’s final tally of three made 3-pointers also marked a season-low as the Wildcats went 0 for 6 from deep in the second half.

The Tigers entered as a respectable No. 137 in KenPom.com‘s defensive efficiency metric but were by no means regarded as a defensive juggernaut. But they stepped up on the big stage against a team that entered ranked No. 4 in offensive efficiency. 

Arizona’s defining trait

Arizona exceeded expectations for much of the season after losing three players who were selected in the 2022 NBA Draft from last season’s Sweet 16 squad. But the fatal trait of these Wildcats was how prone they were to upsets.

Well before Princeton ever appeared on the screen next to Arizona’s name on Selection Sunday, the Wildcats lost some head-scratchers. First came a 15-point loss at Utah on Dec. 1. While road losses against mediocre conference opponents are likely to happen over the course of a long season, the margin of defeat stood out for a team coming off a Maui Invitational title.

Similarly, a 13-point loss at home to Washington State and a 19-point loss at Oregon in January offered confounding representations of Arizona’s ability to alternate between excellent and surprisingly poor levels of play. An 88-79 road loss against Stanford on Feb. 11 was another example.

The Wildcats won two of three against UCLA, knocked off Tennessee and won 19 games by double-digit margins this season. But their bad games were really bad, and their poorest version made an untimely appearance on Thursday to mark a disappointing end to an otherwise solid beginning to second-year coach Tommy Lloyd’s tenure.

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The best time and days to book your domestic and international flights

The best time and days to book your domestic and international flights

Editor’s Take note: Indicator up for Unlocking the Environment, CNN Travel’s weekly newsletter. Get information about locations opening, inspiration for foreseeable future adventures, as well as the newest in aviation, meals and drink, the place to keep and other vacation developments.



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This 7 days in journey information: the best time and working day to guide your flights, new small business and first course cabins for Qantas and Air France, and the only female dwelling on an island populated by convicted criminals.

With some airfares up by as a great deal as 50{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}, it is much more essential than at any time to get smart about your reserving tactic. An specialist at vacation internet site Hopper tells CNN you really should get started monitoring your Could, June and July vacations now. And there is a “Goldilocks window” for scheduling – not as well early, not also late – states another professional from vacation website Going.

Get your laptop and credit rating card out on a Sunday to stand the most effective possibility of securing the best offers, states reserving platform Expedia. You can refine your lookup more with flight comparison site Skyscanner’s new Cost savings Generator, released this month. Plug in your departure town, your desired destination and when you’d like to journey, and it’ll assist you pinpoint the greatest time to ebook and the least expensive time to travel.

If you’re an airline organizing to start file-breaking new 19-hour flights connecting Australia with New York and London, you’d improved make darn guaranteed you are supplying your shoppers a cozy knowledge – in particular for all those shelling out the large pounds in the entrance section.

Qantas has uncovered the to start with and small business course prototypes for the Airbus A350s that will be serving its new “Project Sunrise” routes that are slated to launch in 2025. The airline suggests its Initially Suite will really feel like “a mini boutique lodge.”

That follows the unveiling previous thirty day period of Air France’s swanky new prolonged-haul company cabin, entire with sliding doorways and redesigned seats. It debuted on a Boeing 777-300ER traveling Paris-New York and the to start with destinations it will provide are New York, Rio de Janeiro and Dakar, Senegal.

Back again in 2011, Giulia Manca went to a previous Italian prison island in look for of a enjoyable crack. Twelve a long time later on, she’s the only woman dwelling on an island populated by convicted criminals and is loving life in the “Alcatraz of the Tyrrhenian Sea.”

Above in Mexico, just one of the country’s most infamous prisons commenced a new chapter in December as a Pacific Ocean getaway. The previous penal colony on the Islas Marías archipelago now features a tourism heart, restaurant and cafe, as very well as villas for friends to continue to be in just before hitting the beaches.

Dubai could be obtaining an indoor, weather-managed, 93-kilometer cycling superhighway looping spherical the city, if developer URB receives its way. The greenery-filled corridor “aims to make Dubai the most linked town on Earth by foot or bicycle.”

The move could probably earn the Middle Eastern hub a long term location on our checklist of the world’s finest towns to see by bike: places in North America, Scandinavia and Asia Pacific all make the present-day roundup.

Two people today who have a much better understanding than most of international biking lifestyle are British few Laura Massey-Pugh and Stevie Massey, who last yr turned the speediest cyclists to circumnavigate the earth on a tandem bicycle.

Anthony met Barbara at a Greek ferry port in the summer of 1969. He was a 28-year-previous American higher education graduate with a third-class ticket and she was a 24-calendar year-aged flight attendant for Air France, touring in second class.

Like Jack and Rose in “Titanic,” the boat’s course divisions didn’t stand in the way of enjoy. Here’s how Anthony jumped the boundaries to the fulfill the woman who’d be his bride.

What dinky little travel essential are you most likely to lose – and most possible to mourn when you do? For many of us, the respond to is earphones.

If you are anyone whose most cherished journey companion is a playlist or podcast, but also doesn’t like to split the financial institution on anything that could end up on the floor of a overseas city’s metro program, consider a appear at this guide to finest price range earbuds. It’s been place jointly by our partners at CNN Underscored, a solution testimonials and suggestions guide owned by CNN.

Right after a temporary hiatus, we’re sorry to say unruliness is back again. An American Airways flight was diverted to a North Carolina airport on February 22 because of to a disruptive passenger. The lady was taken into custody, but a misdemeanor charge was dismissed.

An Airbnb plumbing catastrophe led to a gorgeous continent-spanning friendship.

Change on the waterworks, this a person will touch your heart.

This Asian nation has the world’s most “powerful” passport.

So why aren’t its citizens working with it?

What it’s like to dwell off grid in a common Maya village.

And why their way of living is now less than risk.

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Fox News Politics: Nikki Haley’s ‘prime’ time

Fox News Politics: Nikki Haley’s ‘prime’ time

Welcome to Fox News’ Politics publication with the hottest political news and updates from the marketing campaign path. Subscribe now to get Fox Information Politics e-newsletter in your inbox. 

Never ever Skip A MOMENT — Look at out the most up-to-date news on strategies and politics at FoxNews.com

Major Tales

HALEY’S ‘PRIME’ TIME: Nikki Haley jumped into the 2024 White Dwelling race previous 7 days and the liberal media’s reaction was swift and baffling. CNN’s Don Lemon claimed a lady of Haley’s age (51) was earlier her key. Each day Beast contributor Wajahat Ali mentioned she “employs her brown pores and skin to launder White supremacist chatting details.” Haley in the meantime collects all the reactions backlash to demonstrate a point… Read extra from Kyle Morris: Nikki Haley responds to Don Lemon’s remark that she’s past her ‘prime’: Liberals ‘are the most sexist’

FIGHTIN’ BIDEN: President Biden in Poland Tuesday threatened to ramp up sanctions if Russia will not “close the war” in Ukraine… Study extra from Brooke Singman: Biden challenges Putin to ‘end the war’ in Ukraine, threatens to ramp up sanctions towards Russia

U.S. President Joe Biden and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Saint Michael’s cathedral, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine

U.S. President Joe Biden and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Saint Michael’s cathedral, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine (REUTERS/Gleb Garanich)

VLAD MAD: Subsequent Biden’s surprise visit to Kyiv Monday, Russia suspended its participation in New Commence nuclear treaty, which minimal the U.S. and Russia from having more than 1,550 nuclear warheads a piece… Examine much more from Chris Pandolfo: Russia suspends participation in New Start nuclear treaty with US, Putin says

OHIO WHO? The president’s startling go to to Ukraine, and his scheduled check out to Poland, rubbed numerous on the other facet of the Atlantic completely wrong, as Biden has yet to stop by the scene of a train derailment and chemical leak in East Palestine, Ohio… Study much more from Brioanna Herlihy: GOP lawmakers slam Biden for Ukraine trip, neglecting East Palestine, southern border: ‘They can keep him!’

Prepare BLAME Match: Transportation Sec. Pete Buttigieg called on the freight train business to just take motion right after a derailment in Ohio, but Republicans question what position Washington procedures play… Read additional from Ron Blitzer: Buttigieg details finger at rail sector right after Ohio coach derailment GOP officers cite Biden admin procedures

Up The Hill

SWANKWELL: Rep. Eric Swalwell’s marketing campaign put in additional than 50 percent a million pounds on fancy dinners and inns, and traveling expenses in the last two-12 months cycle, which dwarfs the total Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the previous chief of Property Democrats, compensated in the same period… Browse much more from Joe Schoffstall: Eric Swalwell spent a lot more campaign dollars on vacation and luxury accommodations than Nancy Pelosi

YA Do not SAY: Freshmen Rep. George Santos, who lied about various features of his biography, claimed he is a horrible liar but assumed he could get absent with his fabrications immediately after election day… Read far more from Anders Hagstrom: George Santos suggests he is a ‘terrible liar,’ believed no just one would see because he ‘got away with it’ in 2020

U.S. Rep. George Santos (R-NY) waits for President Joe Biden's State of the Union address during a joint meeting of Congress in the House Chamber of the U.S. Capitol on February 07, 2023 in Washington, DC. The speech marks Biden's first address to the new Republican-controlled House. 

U.S. Rep. George Santos (R-NY) waits for President Joe Biden’s State of the Union tackle for the duration of a joint conference of Congress in the Household Chamber of the U.S. Capitol on February 07, 2023 in Washington, DC. The speech marks Biden’s very first tackle to the new Republican-controlled Home.  (Acquire McNamee/Getty Photographs)

SEMI-SUPREME Court docket: Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon needs the Biden administration to overlook a prospective Supreme Court docket ruling on an abortion drug if it isn’t going to go the way he wants… Examine extra: Dem senator phone calls on Biden administration to dismiss potential court order banning abortion drug

2024 Enjoy

BIDEN’S NEMESIS: Non secular advisor, wellness expert and previous 2020 Democratic presidential prospect Marianne Williamson mentioned she has been moved to ‘explore the possibility’ of managing for president in 2024, and says it can be time to move on from Joe Biden… Browse extra from Paul Steinhauser: Williamson tells Democrats it is ‘time to go on’ from Biden as she programs journeys to NH and early main states

Marianne Williamson speaks onstage at Guerrilla Tactics & Asymmetric Political Activism during the 2022 SXSW Conference and Festivals at Hilton Austin on March 14, 2022 in Austin, Texas.

Marianne Williamson speaks onstage at Guerrilla Practices & Uneven Political Activism all through the 2022 SXSW Convention and Festivals at Hilton Austin on March 14, 2022 in Austin, Texas. (Mike Jordan/Getty Images for SXSW)

Road TO THE WHITE Home: 

President Trump heads to East Palestine, Ohio… Trump to pay a visit to East Palestine after harmful prepare derailment

Nikki Haley is in Iowa, and all around cable TV… Nikki Haley fires back again at Whoopi Goldberg: ‘If my age is all they have, it means we’re winning’

Previous Vice President Pence heads to South Carolina…. Pence returning to South Carolina as 2024 race heats up

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis goes to New York, Illinois, Philadelphia… DeSantis kicks off professional-police tour in Democrat-run metropolitan areas as White House rumors swirl

Sen. Tim Scott heads to Iowa with huge war chest… Tim Scott’s large war upper body could give him head commence in 2024 presidential campaign

Stay up to date on the most recent campaign and political information by subscribing to Fox News’ Politics publication. 

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Raoul Pal says AI could become the ‘biggest bubble of all time’: Morning Brief

Raoul Pal says AI could become the ‘biggest bubble of all time’: Morning Brief

This article first appeared in the Morning Brief. Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET. Subscribe

Thursday, February 16, 2023

Today’s newsletter is by Jared Blikre, a reporter focused on the markets on Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @SPYJared. Read this and more market news on the go with the Yahoo Finance App.

The AI genie has escaped the bottle with a velocity not matched in modern human history, and investors are starting to take notice. Wednesday, C3.ai (AI) and SoundHound AI (SOUN) added to their 2023 gains — each up about 120{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} this year.

Despite the outperformance of these thematic AI names, the industry is still relatively small, leaving many investors wondering how to invest. Already, one veteran macro trader is peering far beyond the hype, warning that investment in AI could be the “biggest bubble of all time.”

Raoul Pal, the CEO and founder of Real Vision Group, recently spoke to Yahoo Finance Uncut about the tremendous growth in artificial intelligence as well as the knock-on effects of mass adoption. He believes that the number of applications for AI is set to explode, and we are not yet ready to deal with the implications of this exponential growth.

Pal argues that hand-in-hand with the growth story, AI will usher in a global deflationary shock — one of the largest the world has ever seen.

“I think it might be bigger [by] orders of magnitude than China joining the [World Trade Organization]. I can’t express how powerful what is happening is,” he said, referring to the 2001 WTO decision that paved the way for China to become a manufacturing and trade juggernaut — ushering in an era of cheap imported goods for Americans.

Similarly, experts forecast that AI will replace many workers while lowering the cost of goods and services for consumers.

But despite the lofty visions of industry insiders and investors looking for the next big thing, the technology is still relatively young, with few investing opportunities at scale. Guardforce AI (GFAI), and BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) are pure-play names attracting attention. But even the largest among them — the aforementioned enterprise-software leader, C3.ai — only has a market cap of $2.5 billion.

Artificial Intelligence-themed stocks and funds attracting attention (not comprehensive)

Artificial Intelligence-themed stocks and funds attracting attention (not comprehensive)

In the universe of funds, several thematic ETFs include AI — but mostly in addition to the larger robotics theme. The lone exception appears to be the WisdomTree AI and Innovation Fund (WTAI). (Though, a smartly-named ETF with the ticker CHAT recently filed for registration in the U.S.)

But investors needn’t chase illiquid small-cap stocks to invest in AI.

“[F]or the average person, right now, the easiest two ways [to invest in AI] are Microsoft and Google,” says Pal, adding that both companies are pivoting their entire business models to embrace AI.

Microsoft (MSFT) may have an early-mover advantage with ChatGPT. But behind the scenes, Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL, GOOG) has been investing in other complementary technologies, which should become major investment opportunities down the road, says Pal.

“[D]on’t forget — Google’s got robotics. Google’s got EV. Google’s got self driving … [T]hey’ve got quantum computing — all in their Google X Labs, which we don’t even know about. It’s all behind the curtain.”

As users adopt these new technologies, the companies that offer them at scale should benefit from network effects — a self-reinforcing phenomenon that exponentially increases their network activity. Semiconductors also fall into this category, says Pal. Companies like Nvidia (NVDA) are key to processing AI data, and they are likely to benefit as the technology becomes more widespread.

There will be more high-profile AI failures — some funny, and some scary, as the technology worms its way into our everyday lives and mission-critical systems. But the deck is stacked in favor of exponential growth.

While it may seem premature to worry about a bubble in any asset when investors are still reeling front last year’s drubbing, Pal focuses on some of the near-term effects. “If there’s ever a reason for the major technology stocks to really have another leg higher, it’s on [AI],” he says.

Watch the entire 50-minute interview with Raoul Pal on Yahoo Finance Uncut above.

Economy

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: PPI Final Demand, month-over-month, January (0.4{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, -0.5{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: PPI Excluding Food and Energy, month-over-month, January (0.3{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, 0.1{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: PPI Final Demand, year-over-year, January (5.4{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, 6.2{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: PPI Excluding Food and Energy, year-over-year, January (4.9{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, 5.5{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Housing Starts, January (1.353 million expected, 1.382 during prior month)

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Building Permits, January (1.350 million expected, 1.330 million during prior month, revised to 1.337 million)

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Housing Starts, month-over-month, January (-2.1{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, -1.4{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month)

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Building Permits, month-over-month, January (1.0{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} expected, -1.62{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} during prior month, revised to -1.0{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502})

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Initial Jobless Claims, week ended Feb. 11 (200,000 expected, 196,000 during prior week)

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Continuing Claims, week Feb. 4 (1.689 million expected, 1.688 million during prior week)

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, February (-6.9 expected, -8.9 during prior month)

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: New York Fed Services Business Activity, February (-21.4 during prior month, revised to -13.7)

Earnings

  • BJ Restaurants (BJRI), Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN), Constellation Energy (CEG), ConEdison (ED), Crocs (CROX), Datadog (DDOG), DoorDash (DASH), DraftKings (DKNG), Dropbox (DBX), Hasbro (HAS), Hyatt Hotels (H), Paramount Global (PARA), Shake Shack (SHAK), WeWork (WE)

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