Tag: upsets

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March Madness 2023: Princeton shocks Arizona, No. 15 upsets a No. 2 for 11th time in NCAA Tournament history

March Madness 2023: Princeton shocks Arizona, No. 15 upsets a No. 2 for 11th time in NCAA Tournament history

Princeton pulled an NCAA Tournament stunner on Thursday, when the No. 15 seed Tigers upset No. 2 seed Arizona 59-55 in the first round. It marks the third straight NCAA Tournament in which a No. 15 seed has upset a No. 2 seed after Saint Peter’s beat Kentucky in 2022 and Oral Roberts beat Ohio State in 2021 and the 11th time in tournament history.

Arizona guard Kerr Kriisa had a chance to tie the game with five seconds left on a 3-point look from the left wing, but it bounced off, which allowed the Tigers to clinch the game at the free-throw line.

Tosan Evbuomwan led Princeton with 15 points. Azuolas Tubelis led Arizona with 22 points, and Oumar Ballo contributed 13 points and 12 rebounds. However, the Wildcats were outscored 11-2 in second-chance points. With the loss, Arizona is now 6-2 all-time as a No. 2 seed in first-round games and the only program to lose twice against a No. 15 seed in the first-round.

It marks the Tigers’ first NCAA Tournament win since 1998, when coach Mitch Henderson, 47, was a player on the team. With the win, the Ivy League champions advance to play No. 7 seed Missouri in the second round on Saturday. Arizona opened up a 31-22 edge late in the first half before Princeton closed the half on an 8-0 run. Then, in the second half, the Wildcats led 47-35 with just under 12 minutes to play before Princeton rallied again.  

No. 15s over No. 2s

After Princeton’s victory vs. Arizona, No. 2 seeds are 11-139 vs. No. 15 seeds all-time in the NCAA Tournament.

Year Result Score
1991 Richmond def. Syracuse 73-69
1993 Santa Clara def. Arizona 64-61
1997 Coppin State def. South Carolina 78-65
2001 Hampton def. Iowa State 58-57
2012 Lehigh def. Duke 75-70
2012 Norfolk State def. Missouri 86-84
2013 Florida Gulf Coast def. Georgetown 78-68
2016 Middle Tennessee def. Michigan State 90-81
2021 Oral Roberts def. Ohio State 75-72
2022 Saint Peter’s def. Kentucky 85-79
2023 Princeton def. Arizona 59-55

No flukes

If you’re perusing the box score for some flukey explanation of how Princeton won, good luck. The Tigers made only 4 of 25 attempts from 3-point range and shot just five free throws. Evbuomwan led Princeton with just 15 points, and it’s not as though Arizona had a star player out due to injury or foul trouble.

Princeton matched Arizona in every facet and won this game with its defense, limiting one of the nation’s most high-powered offenses to a season-low with 55 points. Arizona’s final tally of three made 3-pointers also marked a season-low as the Wildcats went 0 for 6 from deep in the second half.

The Tigers entered as a respectable No. 137 in KenPom.com‘s defensive efficiency metric but were by no means regarded as a defensive juggernaut. But they stepped up on the big stage against a team that entered ranked No. 4 in offensive efficiency. 

Arizona’s defining trait

Arizona exceeded expectations for much of the season after losing three players who were selected in the 2022 NBA Draft from last season’s Sweet 16 squad. But the fatal trait of these Wildcats was how prone they were to upsets.

Well before Princeton ever appeared on the screen next to Arizona’s name on Selection Sunday, the Wildcats lost some head-scratchers. First came a 15-point loss at Utah on Dec. 1. While road losses against mediocre conference opponents are likely to happen over the course of a long season, the margin of defeat stood out for a team coming off a Maui Invitational title.

Similarly, a 13-point loss at home to Washington State and a 19-point loss at Oregon in January offered confounding representations of Arizona’s ability to alternate between excellent and surprisingly poor levels of play. An 88-79 road loss against Stanford on Feb. 11 was another example.

The Wildcats won two of three against UCLA, knocked off Tennessee and won 19 games by double-digit margins this season. But their bad games were really bad, and their poorest version made an untimely appearance on Thursday to mark a disappointing end to an otherwise solid beginning to second-year coach Tommy Lloyd’s tenure.

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NCAA Tournament 2023 bracket: Computer simulation shares surprising upsets, March Madness picks, and sleepers

NCAA Tournament 2023 bracket: Computer simulation shares surprising upsets, March Madness picks, and sleepers

Winning back-to-back titles in college basketball is a difficult task. The Kansas Jayhawks can become the first team to repeat since the Florida Gators (2006-07) when they take the court as a No. 1 seed in the 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket. The Jayhawks, however, have a challenging draw in the West Region, with No. 2 UCLA, No. 3 Gonzaga and No. 4 UConn all capable of making a deep run in the 2023 March Madness bracket. Plus, recent history indicates Kansas could be in for a letdown at the NCAA Tournament 2023.

In four of the last five NCAA Tournaments, the defending champion has been eliminated in the first or second round. Will Kansas rewrite the history books and cut down the nets in Houston at the end of the NCAA bracket 2023, or will the Jayhawks have an early exit from the March Madness bracket 2023? Before you make your 2023 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the entire 2023 NCAA Tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks, beating over 92{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of all CBS Sports brackets two of the last four tournaments. The model also nailed three teams in the West and South Region Sweet 16 last year, including No. 5 seed Houston.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 18 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. It also nailed some massive upsets two years ago, including predicting the championship game between Gonzaga and Baylor and hitting Houston’s Midwest Region win even though the Cougars weren’t the No. 1 seed.

Now, SportsLine’s advanced computer model has simulated the entire NCAA Tournament 10,000 times to come up with the perfect 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket and find out which teams will pull off the biggest upsets. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2023 March Madness bracket upset picks

Another team to back in your 2023 NCAA Tournament picks: The 10th-seeded USC Trojans, who are projected to defeat No. 7 Michigan State in the first round of the East Region. USC is making its third straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament under coach Andy Enfield. The Trojans are disciplined on defense, allowing opponents to make just 39.0{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of their field goal attempts, which ranks seventh in the nation. Offensively, Boogie Ellis leads the way for USC, averaging 18.0 points per game. The Spartans, meanwhile, are limping into the 2023 NCAA Tournament, posting a 7-8 record over their last 15 games.

Another surprise from the East Region: No. 5 Duke fails to reach the Sweet 16. The Blue Devils are making their 26th appearance in the last 27 NCAA Tournaments. However, Duke has been inconsistent this season and the Blue Devils rely too heavily on the production of Kyle Filipowski and Jeremy Roach, the only two players averaging double-digit points per game. Duke also struggles from three-point range, knocking down just 32.9{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of shots from long-range, which ranks 245th in college basketball. Duke’s poor shooting from the perimeter is one of the main reasons why SportsLine’s model is expecting the Blue Devils to have an early exit from the NCAA Tournament 2023. See which other 2023 March Madness matchups to target here.

How to make 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2023 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2023 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which double-digit seeds you can back with confidence, all from the model that’s called 18 upsets by double-digit seeds.