IMF warns of weak economic outlook: Top economy news

IMF warns of weak economic outlook: Top economy news
  • This weekly round-up brings you the latest stories from the world of economics and finance.
  • Top economy stories: IMF says medium-term growth outlook weakest in 30 years; US inflation slows to lowest level in nearly two years; Wages in Japan not keeping up with rising prices.

1. IMF warns medium-term growth outlook weakest in 30 years

The global economy is heading for its weakest medium-term growth in more than 30 years as the world grapples with geopolitical fragmentation, slower labour force growth and weaker prospects for previously fast-growing economies such as China, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns in its latest World Economic Outlook.

It expects global growth to be around 3{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in 2028 – the lowest medium-term forecast in an IMF report since 1990.

“The world economy is not currently expected to return over the medium term to the rates of growth that prevailed before the pandemic,” the IMF says.

IMF warns of weak economic outlook: Top economy news

The IMF has trimmed its 2023 global growth outlook.

Image: IMF.

Rising geopolitical tensions from issues such as the war in Ukraine and Brexit are leading to a fragmentation of the global economy that could increase financial stability risks, the report adds. This could hit cross-border investments, asset prices, payment systems and banks’ ability to lend.

The IMF has long warned of increased costs, economic friction and GDP output losses associated with the global economy fragmenting into geopolitical blocs.

The agency has also trimmed its 2023 global growth outlook slightly, as higher interest rates cool economic activity. It now forecasts global real GDP growth at 2.8{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} for 2023 and 3.0{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} for 2024, marking a slowdown from 3.4{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} growth in 2022.

Here’s our round-up of three key charts from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook.

2. US inflation slows to lowest level in nearly two years, jobless claims increase

US inflation eased last month to its lowest in nearly two years, but stubbornly high rents kept underlying inflation pressures simmering, likely ensuring that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again next month.

Prices rose 5{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in the 12 months to March, according to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, down from 6{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in February. That’s the ninth consecutive monthly drop in annual inflation and puts it at its lowest level since May 2021, although it is still more than twice the Fed’s 2{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} inflation target.

A bar chart showing 12 month change in prices across different categories, March 2023.

US annual inflation has dropped for the ninth month in a row.

Image: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“The bottom line is that inflation still remains too hot for the Fed’s liking,” Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo, told Reuters. “That said, there are forward-looking signs that suggest inflation will slow further in the coming months.”

In an indication that higher borrowing costs are already slowing demand in the economy, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 239,000 for the week ended 8 April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 232,000 claims for the week.

3. News in brief: Stories on the economy from around the world

Wages in Japan are not keeping up with rising prices, declining by 2.6{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in February from a year earlier when adjusted for inflation, according to government data. That’s the 11th straight decline and is putting pressure on the central bank’s new governor to end Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy amid inflation of 3.1{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}. But new deputy governor Shinichi Uchida says the Bank of Japan will continue monetary easing to achieve its 2{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} inflation target.

Ukraine’s GDP fell by 29.1{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in 2022 as Russia’s full-scale invasion battered the economy. The figure is slightly better than the 30{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} drop forecast by the government. Russia’s war on Ukraine has damaged heavy industry, the power grid and the agriculture sector, and resulted in the loss of swathes of land in the south and east.


Faster economic growth in Asia this year will be driven by China’s recovery from the pandemic and strong demand in India, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The region’s economy will expand by 4.8{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} this year and next, up from 4.2{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} in 2022, according to the ADB’s latest forecasts.

The European Commission is drawing up new plans to better protect taxpayers from bank failure, The Financial Times reports. Draft legislation outlines rules to make it easier to transfer depositors’ cash to healthy institutions from banks facing troubles, or to close down a bank without having to plough in taxpayers’ money.

The World Economic Forum’s Platform for Shaping the Future of Trade and Investment informs business and policy action on critical international trade and investment choices, driving inclusive growth and development by working with companies, governments, and civil society.


Contact us for more information on how to get involved.

Britain’s economy stagnated in February as strikes by public-sector workers hit output, but a bounce in January was stronger than first thought, reducing the risk of a first-quarter recession. Economic output was flat in month-on-month terms in February, but the Office for National Statistics has revised up its estimate for January’s growth to 0.4{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} from 0.3{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502}.

A number of Sub-Saharan African countries are facing another debt repayment crisis because of soaring food prices, according to Moody’s Investors Services. Several countries will need to repay record amounts of debt from this year through to 2025. The UN estimates that more than a quarter of a billion people in the continent are experiencing hunger.

4. More on finance and the economy on Agenda

Discussions and action plans at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings converged on a single goal – financing an energy transition that is equitable for emerging markets and fast enough to maintain the Paris Agreement goals. Investment of $4 trillion to $6 trillion annually is needed by 2030 to meet these twin goals, but we are currently only in the hundreds of billions.

Many European countries are creating favourable environments for fast-growing technology companies through investment plans and funding programs. This blog looks at how the right mix of regulatory, taxation, education and funding policies can foster econmic growth.

The global economy is entering a period of permanently higher inflation fuelled by four deeper forces, according to an economics lecturer. These forces are deglobalization, climate change, a wage-price spiral and highly liquid global markets.


FAA Warns of Air Traffic Controller Shortage Ahead of Summer Travel Season

FAA Warns of Air Traffic Controller Shortage Ahead of Summer Travel Season
Laurie Baratti

by Laurie Baratti
on April 2, 2023
Final up-to-date: 5:20 PM ET, Sunlight April 2, 2023

In an energy to prevent a repeat of past summer’s tumultuous air vacation scene, The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is warning the sector of staffing shortages at a important facility and requesting that airways make some operational changes. 

Past 7 days, the FAA held a conference with aviation market leaders to confer about the very best techniques of controlling the New York area’s by now congested airspace. Precisely, the agency requested that airlines work less flightswhile employing larger planes in order to enable simplicity airspace and airport targeted traffic in the course of the peak summer season journey period. 

Following the prevalent flight disruptions, delays and cancellations that plagued passengers past 12 months, the FAA is hoping to sidestep the imminent risk of an additional gridlocked peak summer months vacation season. With client need mounting and this summer’s vacation to the region forecast to enhance seven percent in excess of final summer time, the FAA has predicted 45 percent extra delays if almost nothing improvements.

“The FAA is taking several actions to preserve air travel to and from New York Metropolis this summer months risk-free and smooth, even as we see strong domestic need and a return of pre-pandemic intercontinental website traffic,” the agency claimed in a assertion. 

The FAA disclosed that a critical New York Metropolis facility is suffering from a severe shortage of air visitors controllers. The central difficulty boils down to personnel deficits at the New York Terminal Radar Tactic Regulate (TRACON), or N90, positioned on Extensive Island, which is responsible for orchestrating flights to and from the New York metro area’s John F. Kennedy Intercontinental Airport, LaGuardia Airport and Newark Liberty Intercontinental Airport.

The FAA really unveiled in a recognize very last month that TRACON’s staffing stages stood at only 54 {515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} of what is essentially essential, compared with an common of 81 percent at other air targeted traffic regulate centers. It explained that pandemic safety measures impacted workforce schooling at the facility, and staffing hasn’t caught back again up to the diploma noticed at other destinations. 

A essential hub, not just for flights in and all-around the East Coastline, but for connections through the relaxation of the U.S., difficulties at TRACON could quickly all through the entire aviation method. In individual, the FAA is fearful about air targeted visitors volumes creating disruptions in between New York and the nation’s funds. The agency informed carriers Washington D.C.’s Reagan Nationwide Airport was a fantastic goal to take into consideration for carriers on the lookout to consolidate flights.

The Washington Publish documented that airline executives expressed a willingness to cooperate with the company but, also some aggravation, as they are doing the job to restore their possess functions to pre-pandemic stages.

Airways have been offered until eventually April 30 to choose their subsequent transfer, but United and Delta Air Traces have reportedly presently expressed their first approval of the FAA’s proposal. Both equally mentioned that they would test to make use of much larger planes to the “extent possible” on flights involving New York and D.C., and be a lot more clear with the general public about their initiatives to prevent flight disruptions.


 

For the newest vacation news, updates and bargains, be absolutely sure to subscribe to the daily TravelPulse newsletter listed here.

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Disney begins process of cutting 7,000 jobs as CEO Bob Iger warns ‘challenges ahead’

Disney begins process of cutting 7,000 jobs as CEO Bob Iger warns ‘challenges ahead’

Disney (DIS) CEO Bob Iger declared the start out of the firm’s mass layoffs on Monday immediately after the company very last thirty day period outlined designs to lower 7,000 workers this year in an exertion to slash $5.5 billion in expenses.

“This 7 days, we get started notifying staff members whose positions are impacted by the company’s workforce reductions,” Iger wrote in an inside memo attained by Yahoo Finance. “Leaders will be communicating the information straight to the to start with group of impacted staff members in excess of the upcoming four times. A next, bigger round of notifications will take place in April with many thousand a lot more workers reductions.”

Iger, who said the final spherical of layoffs will get put right before the beginning of the summer time to reach the 7,000-job concentrate on, warned there will be “problems in advance” for the employees even now present at the business.

“For our workers who usually are not impacted, I want to admit that there will no doubt be troubles ahead as we go on creating the structures and capabilities that will allow us to be prosperous shifting forward. I check with for your continued comprehending and collaboration in the course of this time,” he wrote.

Disney stock was minimal adjusted on the heels of the news. Shares are up about 10{515baef3fee8ea94d67a98a2b336e0215adf67d225b0e21a4f5c9b13e8fbd502} considering the fact that the commence of the 12 months.

In addition to the layoffs introduced in February, Disney also disclosed ideas to restructure the organization into three main enterprise segments: Disney Leisure, ESPN, and Disney Parks, Activities and Products.

“The challenging reality of a lot of colleagues and mates leaving Disney is not a little something we acquire evenly,” Iger stressed.

In his organized remarks throughout the firm’s first quarter earnings report on Feb. 8, Iger explained the new strategic organization “will consequence in a a lot more expense-effective coordinated and streamlined technique to our operations, and we are committed to operating our organizations much more proficiently, primarily in a demanding economic environment.”

Alan Bergman and Dana Walden will be co-chairs of Disney Amusement, which will include the company’s complete portfolio of enjoyment media and written content companies globally, like streaming.

Jimmy Pitaro will continue on to serve as chairman of ESPN, which will involve ESPN Networks, ESPN+, and its intercontinental sports activities channels, though Josh D’Amaro will continue to be chairman of Disney Parks, Activities and Merchandise.

At the time, Iger underscored his motivation to building a immediate link amongst articles conclusions and money performance. He stated Disney+ is on monitor to realize profitability by the conclusion of fiscal 2024 just after losses inside the firm’s streaming division narrowed to $1.1 billion from $1.5 billion in its most current quarter.

Chairman and CEO of The Walt Disney Company Bob Iger speaks next to the character of Minnie Mouse at the unveiling of her star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame in Los Angeles, California, U.S., January 22, 2018. REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni

Chairman and CEO of The Walt Disney Business Bob Iger speaks upcoming to the character of Minnie Mouse at the unveiling of her star on the Hollywood Stroll of Fame in Los Angeles, California, U.S., January 22, 2018. REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni

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Rules for winding up big banks do not work, Swiss finance minister warns

Rules for winding up big banks do not work, Swiss finance minister warns

The worldwide regulatory regime for “too massive to fail” banks set up following the 2008 crisis does not do the job, according to Switzerland’s finance minister.

In an job interview with Swiss newspaper NZZ on Saturday, Karin Keller-Sutter — who was at the centre of Swiss authorities’ rush to rescue Credit score Suisse final weekend — stated adhering to the unexpected emergency protocols that are at the centre of the regulatory architecture for massive banking companies “would have induced an intercontinental economical crisis”.

Capital buffers and additional regulatory regulations on possibility have been practical for navigating moments of tension, Keller-Sutter reported, but in a serious crisis, ideas to facilitate the orderly rescue or wind-down of major banks are insufficient.

“Personally I have appear to the conclusion . . . that a globally lively systemically important lender are not able to basically be wound up according to the ‘too huge to fail’ program,” she reported. “Legally this would be probable. In practice, even so, the economic problems would be substantial.”

Final weekend was “clearly not the moment for experimentation”, she additional in her very first job interview because the disaster erupted. “The crash of Credit score Suisse would have dragged other banking institutions into the abyss.”

The finance minister, who took up her publish at the stop of December, said issues above Credit Suisse’s liquidity had been her 1st issue to civil servants when she started out in place of work.

She said she requested a few months back: “When will the stage be reached at which the authorities have to intervene at which point will Finma come to the summary that CS is no more time practical?”

Keller-Sutter sat at the centre of the emergency negotiations, representing Switzerland’s governing Federal Council and co-ordinating with the Swiss Countrywide Bank and market place regulator Finma.

The eventual rescue program, in which the bank was taken about by its greater rival UBS, has occur less than rigorous criticism, a lot of it targeted on the decision by Finma to wipe out SFr16bn of convertible bonds although preserving some worth for Credit score Suisse equity holders.

Bondholders have pledged to acquire Swiss authorities to court in what could be a prolonged and significant-profile litigative system.

Keller-Sutter did not response queries on the final decision to wipe out Credit history Suisse’s subordinated financial debt holders, but advised NZZ that the takeover by UBS was the only viable possibility, and the federal government did what it could to aid the offer though in search of to cut down any stress on Swiss taxpayers.

Domestically, the merger of the country’s two most important banking institutions — for which the government has published a SFr9bn ensure and authorised a SFr100bn liquidity line from the SNB — has proved deeply unpopular.

A poll unveiled on Friday showed that three-quarters of Swiss folks surveyed supported laws to break up the new entity, with a the greater part harbouring serious concerns that the government had overstepped its authority.

Russia-Ukraine war live: war crimes dominate agenda at UN in Geneva; US warns China against arming Russia | Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine war live: war crimes dominate agenda at UN in Geneva; US warns China against arming Russia | Ukraine

Key events

Summary of the day so far …

  • Air raid alerts sounded across Ukraine’s Kyiv region late on Sunday night as Kyiv’s regional military administration confirmed the country’s air defences were at work. The nearby northern city of Chernihiv also reported shooting down Iranian-made Shahed drones, according to its regional governor, Vyacheslav Chaus.

  • Ukraine’s ministry of defence claimed in total to have shot down 11 of 14 drones deployed, including nine over Kyiv. Two emergency service workers were killed and three other people injured during a drone attack on Khmelnytskyi, according to city’s mayor.

  • Belarus’s exiled opposition has claimed partisans destroyed a Russian plane at an airstrip near the capital Minsk on Sunday. “Partisans … confirmed a successful special operation to blow up a rare Russian plane at the airfield in Machulishchy near Minsk,” tweeted Franak Viacorka, a close adviser of opposition figurehead Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. “This is the most successful diversion since the beginning of 2022.” The two Belarusians who carried out the operation had used drones, he said, adding that they had already left the country and were safe.

  • Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said on Monday that talks with Sweden and Finland regarding their Nato membership bids would resume on 9 March, after a delay in January in the wake of a Qur’an-burning protest. The meeting will take place in Brussels and will include discussion on the implementation of the memorandum signed between the countries. It later emerged that the Qur’an-burning incident in Stockholm was funded by a far-right journalist with links to Kremlin-backed media.

  • Respect for human rights has gone into reverse, the United Nations chief warned Monday, calling for a renewal of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 75 years after its signing. Pointing to the war raging in Ukraine, and threats to rights from soaring poverty, hunger and climate disasters, António Guterres said the declaration was “under assault from all sides”. He said the “Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered the most massive violations of human rights” being witnessed in the world today. “It has unleashed widespread death, destruction and displacement,” he said.

  • The UK’s ministry of defence has claimed that “Russia will likely be concerned that unexplained explosions are occurring” in and around Mariupol, a location “at least 80km away from the frontline … [which] it had probably previously assessed as beyond the range of routine Ukrainian strike capabilities.”

  • The US is “confident” that China is considering providing lethal equipment to support Russia in Ukraine, according to the CIA director, William Burns. In an interview with CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday, Burns said he was “confident that the Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment” but noted “we also don’t see that a final decision has been made yet, and we don’t see evidence of actual shipments of lethal equipment”.

  • China has always maintained communication with all sides in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including Kyiv, a foreign ministry spokesperson told a regular news briefing on Monday.

  • Russia’s former president said in remarks published on Monday that the continued arms supply to Kyiv risks a global nuclear catastrophe, reiterating his threat of nuclear war over Ukraine. Dmitry Medvedev’s apocalyptic rhetoric has been seen as an attempt to deter the US-led Nato military alliance and Kyiv’s western allies from getting even more involved in the war.

That is it from me, Martin Belam, for now. I will be back later. Léonie Chao-Fong will be with you for the next few hours.

Jennifer Rankin

Jennifer Rankin

A Ukrainian Nobel peace laureate has called for the swift creation of a special tribunal to try Vladimir Putin and his associates for the crime of aggression, arguing that it could have “a cooling effect” on atrocities committed by the Kremlin’s invading forces.

Oleksandra Matviichuk, the head of the Centre for Civil Liberties, also said a speedy start to war crimes trials against the Russian president and soldiers could save people’s lives by deterring Russian forces from committing further crimes.

Starting legal proceedings could have “a cooling effect” on the brutality of human rights violations that Russian troops were committing daily in Ukraine, she told the Guardian in an interview.

Oleksandra Matviichuk at the Council of Europe in January.
Oleksandra Matviichuk at the Council of Europe in January. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Some troops, perhaps not all, would realise that Putin’s authoritarian regime had an end date, Matviichuk said, if they knew they would be held to account. The possibility of justice would help them realise “I will not be able to hide under abstract Putin and maybe I will have to be responsible for every thing which I commit by my own hands,” she said.

Read more of Jennifer Rankin’s interview and report here: Ukrainian Nobel peace laureate calls for special tribunal to try Putin

Here is a recent view of the military cemetery in Dnipro that has just been sent to us over the news wires.

A view of a military cemetery amid the Russia-Ukraine war in Dnipro.
A view of a military cemetery amid the Russia-Ukraine war in Dnipro. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

The Kremlin said on Monday it was worried about the state of affairs in Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region, where it said Ukraine and other European countries were stirring up the situation.

Moscow last week told the west that it would view any actions that threatened Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria as an attack on Russia itself, a warning that came amid increased concerns in Moldova, a small ex-Soviet republic located between Romania and Ukraine, of a possible Russian threat.

Moldova’s pro-European president, Maia Sandu, this month accused Moscow of plotting a coup, something Russia denied.

“Naturally, the situation in Transnistria is the subject of our closest attention and a reason for our concern,” Reuters reports Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the media. “The situation is unsettled, it is being provoked, provoked from outside.

“But we know that our opponents in the Ukrainian regime, the Kyiv regime, as well as those in European countries, are capable of various types of provocation.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has dismissed Moscow’s assertion that Ukraine wants to take over the region, while Moldova said there was no truth to the allegations.

Vadim Krasnoselsky, the self-styled president of Transnistria, had earlier described the situation in the region as tense, but urged people to remain calm and said that citizens would be informed immediately should any threat of danger arise.

Respect for human rights has gone into reverse, the United Nations chief warned on Monday, calling for a renewal of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 75 years after its signing.

Pointing to the war raging in Ukraine, and threats to rights from soaring poverty, hunger and climate disasters, AFP reports António Guterres as saying the declaration was “under assault from all sides.”

“Some governments chip away at it. Others use a wrecking ball,” he told the opening of the UN Human Rights Council’s main annual session, describing the disregard and disdain seen for human rights around the world as “a wake-up call”.

He said the “Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered the most massive violations of human rights” being witnessed in the world today.

“It has unleashed widespread death, destruction and displacement,” he said.

AFP reports that a second person has died as a result of Russian drone attacks overnight.

It quotes Oleksandr Symchyshyn, mayor of Khmelnytskyi, saying “Unfortunately, we have another hospital death. Doctors failed to save the life of another hero, a rescuer”. Earlier, the mayor and Ukraine’s ministry of defence reported that someone from the emergency services had been killed. Ukraine claims to have shot down 11 of 14 drones deployed by Russian forces.

Nine were downed over the capital, Kyiv, the head of the city’s military administration said, and there were no reported casualties or damage to infrastructure.

The official, Sergiy Popko, said Russian forces were trying “to exhaust our air defences”, and said the attack had come in two separate waves.

Here are some of the latest images sent to us over the news wires from Ukraine.

A Russian military helicopter flies near a church in occupied Donetsk.
A Russian military helicopter flies near a church in occupied Donetsk. Photograph: Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
A Ukrainian serviceman rests in the frontline city of Bakhmut.
A Ukrainian serviceman rests in the frontline city of Bakhmut. Photograph: RFE/RL/SERHII NUZHNENKO/Reuters
A general view shows the frontline city of Bakhmut.
A general view shows the frontline city of Bakhmut. Photograph: RFE/RL/SERHII NUZHNENKO/Reuters
57-year-old Tatyana sits in her home as she describes her injuries following her dog stepping on a butterfly landmine which sent shrapnel into her own leg and killed the dog in Izyum, Ukraine.
57-year-old Tatyana sits in her home as she describes her injuries following her dog stepping on a butterfly landmine which sent shrapnel into her own leg and killed the dog in Izyum, Ukraine. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Ramon Antonio Vargas has spoken to Randi Thompson, president of Los Angeles-based nonprofit Kidsave, who is calling on Americans to aid efforts to place Ukrainian children orphaned by the Russian invasion in new families within their country.

Read more here: Ukrainian children orphaned by war ‘need a tremendous amount of help’

Just to add to that report from the Ukraine ministry of defence that an emergency service worker was killed in Khmelnytskyi overnight, AFP is reporting that the mayor of Khmelnytskyi, Oleksandr Symchyshyn, has said: “For now, we know of one dead and four injured” after the drone attack on the city.

Ukraine’s ministry of defence has claimed that overnight its forces shot down 11 Iranian-made Shahed drones. It also confirmed that an officer of Ukraine’s emergency services was killed in Khmelnytskyi.

Last night, enemy attacked Ukraine with Iran-made Shahed drones.
11 of them were shot down.
A @SESU_UA officer was killed in Khmelnytskyi; he was on duty at that time.

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 27, 2023

The claims have not been independently verified.

China has always maintained communication with all sides in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including Kyiv, a foreign ministry spokesperson told a regular news briefing on Monday.

Reuters reports Mao Ning was answering a question on Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy saying he would welcome talks with China.

In another question on Zelenskiy saying that he planned to speak to the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, Mao said: “China’s position on the Ukraine crisis is consistent and very clear.”

“The core is to call for peace and promote dialogue and promote a political solution to the crisis. We have always maintained communication with the sides involved including Ukraine,” Mao said.

Turkey’s talks with Sweden and Finland over Nato bid to resume 9 March

Turkish foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said on Monday that talks with Sweden and Finland regarding their Nato membership bids would resume on 9 March, after a delay in January in the wake of a Qur’an-burning protest.

Reuters reports that speaking in Ankara, Çavuşoğlu said the meeting would take place in Brussels and would include discussion on the implementation of the memorandum signed between the countries.

It later emerged that the Qur’an-burning incident in Stockholm was funded by a far-right journalist with links to Kremlin-backed media.

In its latest daily intelligence briefing on the war, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has raised the issue of explosions in occupied Mariupol. It writes:

Since 21 February 2023, pro-Russian officials have reported at least 14 explosions around the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol. Sites of the incidents have included an ammo cache at the airport, two fuel depots, and a steel works that Russia uses as a military base. Mariupol lies at least 80km away from the frontline.

Russia will likely be concerned that unexplained explosions are occurring in a zone it had probably previously assessed as beyond the range of routine Ukrainian strike capabilities. Although widely devasted earlier in the war, Mariupol is important to Russia because it is the largest city Russia captured in 2022 that it still controls, and sits on a key logistics route.

The claims have not been independently verified.

Suspilne, Ukraine’s state broadcaster, has reported on the Telegram app that trams and trolleybuses in the port city of Odesa have stopped this morning because of a shortage of electricity.

Russia’s former president said in remarks published on Monday that the continued arms supply to Kyiv risks a global nuclear catastrophe, reiterating his threat of nuclear war over Ukraine.

Dmitry Medvedev’s apocalyptic rhetoric has been seen as an attempt to deter the US-led Nato military alliance and Kyiv’s western allies from getting even more involved in the war.

The latest comments by Medvedev, an ally of President Vladimir Putin who serves as deputy chairman of Putin’s security council, follow Putin’s nuclear warning last week and his Sunday remarks casting Moscow’s confrontation with the west as an existential battle for the survival of Russia and the Russian people.

Of course, the pumping in of weapons can continue …. and prevent any possibility of reviving negotiations,” Medvedev said in remarks published in the daily Izvestia.

Our enemies are doing just that, not wanting to understand that their goals will certainly lead to a total fiasco. Loss for everyone. A collapse. Apocalypse. Where you forget for centuries about your former life, until the rubble ceases to emit radiation.”

Partisans destroy Russian plane in Belarus, officials claim

Belarus’s exiled opposition has claimed partisans destroyed a Russian A-50 surveillance military aircraft in a drone attack at an airstrip near the capital Minsk on Sunday.

Franak Viacorka, a close adviser of opposition figurehead Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, tweeted:

Partisans … confirmed a successful special operation to blow up a rare Russian plane at the airfield in Machulishchy near Minsk.

This is the most successful diversion since the beginning of 2022.”

The two Belarusians who carried out the operation had used drones, he said, adding that they had already left the country and were safe.

Reuters reported Aliaksandr Azarov, leader of Belarusian anti-government organisation BYPOL, as saying on the organisation’s Telegram messaging app and on the Poland-based Belsat news channel:

Those were drones. The participants of the operation are Belarusian … They are now safe, outside the country.”

The Guardian has not been able to independently verify the reports.

Front and central parts of the aircraft as well as the radar antenna were damaged as a result of two explosions in the attack at the Machulishchy air base near Minsk, BYPOL reported.

The Beriev A-50 aircraft, which has the Nato reporting name of Mainstay, is a Russian airborne early warning aircraft, with airborne command and control capabilities, and the ability to track up to 60 targets at a time, according to Reuters.

As battles continue to rage across Ukraine’s eastern front here are some of the latest images to come through our newswires.

Ukrainian servicemen fire a howitzer towards Russian positions in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, 26 February 2023
Ukrainian servicemen fire a howitzer towards Russian positions in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, on Sunday. Photograph: Oleg Petrasyuk/EPA
Ukrainian servicemen fire an SPG anti-tank rocket launcher in the Donetsk region
Ukrainian servicemen fire an SPG anti-tank rocket launcher in the Donetsk region. Photograph: Oleg Petrasyuk/EPA
A SPG anti-tank rocket launcher being prepared in the Donetsk region
A SPG anti-tank rocket launcher being prepared in the Donetsk region. Photograph: Oleg Petrasyuk/EPA
A Ukrainian serviceman walks in a trench on a frontline position at an undisclosed location in eastern Ukraine
A Ukrainian serviceman walks in a trench on a frontline position at an undisclosed location in eastern Ukraine. Photograph: Oleg Petrasyuk/EPA
A Ukrainian serviceman sits in the trench on the frontline position in Donetsk
A Ukrainian serviceman sits in the trench on the frontline position in Donetsk. Photograph: Oleg Petrasyuk/EPA
Destroyed buildings and a car as a result of shelling in the village of Kamenka, Kharkiv region
Destroyed buildings and a car as a result of shelling in the village of Kamenka, Kharkiv region. Photograph: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images

UN human rights council to meet, will extend war crimes investigation

The UN human rights council is set to meet today in a united call to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and extend its investigation into war crimes in the conflict.

Days after the United Nations general assembly in New York voted overwhelmingly to demand Russia immediately withdraw from Ukraine, the war is expected to dominate the opening of the top UN rights body’s main annual session in Geneva.

We’re looking for this session to show, as the UN general assembly showed … that the world stands side-by-side with Ukraine,” British ambassador Simon Manley said at an event Friday marking the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The meeting, which is due to last a record six weeks, will be the first presided over by new UN rights chief Volker Turk, who kicks the session off early Monday.

The UN secretary general, António Guterres, will also address the council on the first day, while nearly 150 ministers and heads of state and government will speak, virtually or in person, during the four-day high-level segment.

Among them will be the top diplomats of the US, China, Ukraine and Iran.

Moscow will send deputy foreign minister Sergey Ryabkov to address the council in person on Thursday.

One key resolution will be on extending a high-level investigation into crimes committed in Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The so-called Commission of Inquiry, which has already determined that Russia is committing war crimes on a “massive scale” in Ukraine, is due to present a comprehensive report to the council in late March.

The commission must “continue its important work, which is of paramount importance for the principles of accountability and justice”, Yevheniia Filipenko, permanent representative of Ukraine to the United Nations office in Geneva, told reporters on Friday.

Summary and welcome

Hello and welcome back to the Guardian’s live coverage of the war in Ukraine. I’m Samantha Lock and I’ll be bringing you all the latest developments as they unfold.

The UN human rights council is set to meet today in Geneva in a united call to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and extend a probe into war crimes in the conflict.

Days after the United Nations general assembly in New York voted overwhelmingly to demand Russia immediately withdraw from Ukraine, the war is expected to dominate the opening of the top UN rights body’s main annual session.

US officials have also warned China against providing lethal aid to support Russia’s war on Ukraine. CIA director William Burns said he is “confident” that Beijing is considering providing the equipment to Moscow’s forces but a final decision has not been made yet and there has been no evidence of actual shipments of lethal equipment.

It’s 7.30am in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand:

  • The US is “confident” that China is considering providing lethal equipment to support Russia in Ukraine, according to the CIA director, William Burns. In an interview with CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday, Burns said he was “confident that the Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment” but noted “we also don’t see that a final decision has been made yet, and we don’t see evidence of actual shipments of lethal equipment”. The US has made clear behind closed doors that such a move would have serious consequences. The White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said in an interview with CNN’s State of the Union programme: “Beijing will have to make its own decisions about how it proceeds, whether it provides military assistance, but if it goes down that road, it will come at real costs to China.”

  • Vladimir Putin has accused the west of seeking to “dismember” Russia and to turn the vast country into a series of weak mini-states. In an interview with the state TV channel Rossiya on Sunday, the Russian president claimed the US and its Nato allies wanted to “inflict a strategic defeat on us”. The aim, he said, was to “make our people suffer”.

  • Putin has claimed Russia had no choice but to take into account the nuclear capabilities of Nato as the US-led military alliance was seeking the defeat of Russia. “In today’s conditions, when all the leading Nato countries have declared their main goal as inflicting a strategic defeat on us, so that our people suffer as they say, how can we ignore their nuclear capabilities in these conditions?” Putin told Rossiya 1 state television, according to Tass. “They tried to reshape the world exclusively on their terms. We had no choice but to react,” he said, adding that the west was complicit in Ukraine’s “crimes”.

  • Ukraine’s military has dismissed claims by Russia’s Wagner mercenary group that it had captured Yahidne, a village on Bakhmut’s northern outskirts. It said intense fighting was going on across the whole frontline. On Saturday the founder of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said his forces had taken Yahidne and the nearby village of Berkhivka. The latest Ukrainian update cited “unsuccessful” Russian offensives in the two settlements and four others. All were subject to heavy shelling, it said.

  • Volodymyr Zelenskiy fired a senior military commander in charge of fighting Russian troops in Ukraine’s east. The Ukrainian president dismissed Eduard Moskalyov as commander of the joint forces of Ukraine, which are engaged in battles in the Donbas region, but gave no reason for the move on Sunday.

  • Belarus’s exiled opposition has claimed partisans destroyed a Russian plane at an airstrip near the capital Minsk on Sunday. “Partisans … confirmed a successful special operation to blow up a rare Russian plane at the airfield in Machulishchy near Minsk,” tweeted Franak Viacorka, a close adviser of opposition figurehead Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. “This is the most successful diversion since the beginning of 2022.” The two Belarusians who carried out the operation had used drones, he said, adding that they had already left the country and were safe. The Guardian has not been able to independently verify the reports.

  • Joe Biden has said the prospect of China negotiating peace between Ukraine and Russia is “just not rational”. Speaking on ABC News about China’s peace plan, the US president said: “I’ve seen nothing [that] would indicate there’s something that would be beneficial to anyone other than Russia. The idea that China is gonna be negotiating the outcome of a war that’s a totally unjust war for Ukraine is just not rational.”

  • The German defence minister, Boris Pistorius, said he expected the contracts for the backfilling of howitzers that Berlin rushed to Ukraine last year to be signed by the end of March – months earlier than originally planned – “if everything works out”. Talking to German public broadcaster ARD on Sunday, he did not specify the number of weapons to be reordered. Pistorius also said it was up to Kyiv to decide when, and under what conditions, to enter talks with Moscow. He suggested the same was true for any decision on recapturing the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

  • Washington is reportedly in talks with Berlin and Warsaw to hold joint military manoeuvres in Poland in response to Russia’s threat to the eastern border of the Nato alliance. Exercises were being “considered”, Pistorius told Germany’s ARD, without confirming or adding any details “for now”. He said military manoeuvres in a country bordering Ukraine – invaded one year ago by Russia – would send a “very clear” signal to Nato allies “but also to Putin”.

Ukrainian servicemen seen on Ukraine’s eastern front.
Ukrainian servicemen seen on Ukraine’s eastern front. Photograph: pr

Russia-Ukraine war live: UK warns conflict could last another year; Russian general ‘under intense pressure in Donetsk’ | Russia

Russia-Ukraine war live: UK warns conflict could last another year; Russian general ‘under intense pressure in Donetsk’ | Russia

Russian general probably under intense pressure to take Vuhledar, says UK

The town of Vuhledar, in southern Donetsk oblast, has experienced heavy shelling again, according to the MoD’s latest defence intelligence update.

“There is a realistic possibility that Russia is preparing for another offensive effort in this area despite costly failed attacks in early February and late 2022,” the update on Thursday morning said.

Colonel General Rustam Muradov, commander of Russia’s Eastern Group of forces, is likely to be under intense pressure to improve results in Vuhledar after harsh criticism from the Russian nationalist community, according to the MoD.

“However, it is unlikely that Muradov has a striking force capable of achieving a breakthrough,” it said.

Key events

Summary

Hello and welcome to those now following today’s live coverage on the war in Ukraine. It’s 1pm in Kyiv.

On the eve of the anniversary of the start of the war, Vladimir Putin has threatened to strengthen Russia’s nuclear forces. His comments were released before an address to mark Thursday’s Defender of the Fatherland public holiday.

And Nato’s chief, Jens Stoltenberg, says the military alliance has seen “some signs” that China may be planning to support Russia in its war in Ukraine, and strongly urged Beijing to desist from what would be a violation of international law.

The UN general assembly is expected to endorse a broad resolution demanding Russia unconditionally and immediately withdraw from Ukraine’s territory by a massive majority. But China, South Africa, India and many countries in the global south are likely to continue to abstain, underlining their alienation from what they regarded as the west’s war.

We’ll have more on these stories shortly. In the meantime, here are the key recent developments:

  • Russia is intensifying hostilities in Ukraine a year after its invasion in a deliberate attempt to deplete Ukrainian forces, the Ukrainian military said on Thursday.The fiercest fighting remained around the eastern city of Bakhmut, Brigadier general Oleksiy Gromov said, according to Reuters.

  • Finland will send three Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, the country’s defence ministry said according to Reuters. The announcement comes after Sweden’s defence minister said it was open to sending some of its Leopard battle tanks, and the Czech government announced a further military aid shipment to Ukraine.

  • The founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force has said much-needed ammunition for his troops has been dispatched, after a public row in which he accused the military leadership of treason. In an audio clip on Thursday, Prigozhin said he felt the pressure he and others had put on the ministry had paid off, and he had been told that ammunition was now on its way.

  • A Russian fighter plane crashed on Thursday and the pilot was killed in Russia’s Belgorod region, near the border with Ukraine. The cause of the incident is not yet known, the Russian defence ministry said. The cause of the crash was a “technical malfunction”, according to preliminary information and crashed in an uninhabited area and there were no reports of other damage.

  • Sweden is open to sending some of its Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine as it prepares to present another package of aid to help Kyiv fight off the Russian invasion, the Nordic country’s defence minister said.

  • Moldova dismissed an accusation by Russia’s defence ministry on Thursday that Ukraine planned to invade the breakaway Moldovan region of Transdniestria after staging a false-flag operation, and called for calm.

  • The US Treasury secretary stepped up calls for increased financing support to Ukraine, as the US readies an additional $10bn in economic assistance in the coming weeks. Janet Yellen said it was critical for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to “move swiftly” towards a fully financed loan programme for Ukraine.

  • ‘I think he is not going to stop’: UK defence secretary on Putin’s war. Ben Wallace has said the conflict in Ukraine could last another year. PA news also reported that Wallace stressed that the war was “not a Nato conflict”.

  • Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has arrived in Kyiv to meet Volodymyr Zelenskiy as the first anniversary of the Russian invasion approaches. Arriving in the Ukrainian capital, Sánchez said: “I’m back in Ukraine a year after the start of the war. We will stay by Ukraine’s side until peace returns to Europe.”

  • The town of Vuhledar, in southern Donetsk oblast, has experienced heavy shelling again, according to the UK MoD’s latest defence intelligence update. “There is a realistic possibility that Russia is preparing for another offensive effort in this area despite costly failed attacks in early February and late 2022,” the update on Thursday morning said.

  • The Chinese government did not consult with Kyiv when preparing its peace plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, a senior Ukrainian official said on condition of anonymity. “China did not consult with us,” the official told reporters.

  • Vladimir Putin will use an address to mark Thursday’s Defender of the Fatherland public holiday to threaten to strengthen the country’s nuclear forces. Putin said that for the first time, Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles – a weapon able to carry multiple nuclear warheads – would be deployed this year.

  • Joe Biden has said Putin made a “big mistake” by suspending the last remaining nuclear arms treaty with the US. The Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, has said Russia’s decision to suspend its participation in the New Start nuclear arms reduction treaty with the US will not increase the risk of a nuclear war. Russia’s parliament on Wednesday approved Putin’s move to suspend the treaty.

  • The Biden administration is considering releasing intelligence it believes shows that China is weighing whether to supply weapons to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

  • The UN secretary general, António Guterres, condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “an affront to our collective conscience”, at a two-day meeting of the general assembly. Friday’s anniversary is “a grim milestone for the people of Ukraine and for the international community”, he said in New York.

  • Two civilians were killed in Russian shelling of the Kherson region in southern Ukraine on Wednesday, according to regional officials. Oleksandr Prokudin, the head of the regional military administration, said an 81-year-old woman and a 68-year-old man were killed during shelling of the village of Novotyahinka, about 40km (25 miles) from Kherson city. A Russian missile strike on the north-eastern city of Kharkiv on Wednesday morning left two civilians wounded, Oleh Synyehubov, the governor of Kharkiv region, has said.

  • Biden vowed that the US would defend “literally every inch of Nato” territory, ahead of talks with Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, and leaders of the Bucharest Nine (B9), a collection of nations on the most eastern parts of the Nato alliance and closest to Russia.

  • All members of the B9 have jointly condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine, a Polish presidential adviser said. Biden and the B9 leaders “reaffirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine and underscored their shared commitment to stand with the Ukrainian people for as long as it takes” according to a White House account of Wednesday afternoon’s meeting in Warsaw.

  • China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, has met Vladimir Putin in Moscow, as China and Russia reaffirm their close bilateral relationship. Wang told Putin that Beijing would play a “constructive” role in reaching a political settlement of the crisis in Ukraine, the Russian state-owned Tass news agency reported.

  • Earlier on Wednesday, Wang met Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, where he said he expected to reach a “new consensus” on advancing the relationship between the two allies. Xi Jinping, China’s president, is expected to visit Putin in Russia in the coming months.

  • Vladimir Putin has praised soldiers who are “fighting heroically, courageously, bravely” to “defend the fatherland”, in a speech at a rally in Moscow to mark a year of war in Ukraine. Thousands gathered at Luzhniki stadium in Moscow for a concert marking Defenders of the Fatherland Day.

  • EU countries have failed to agree on a new set of sanctions against Russia meant to be in place for the one-year anniversary of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine on Friday, four diplomatic sources in Brussels have told Reuters. More talks among Brussels representatives of EU member countries were due on Thursday afternoon, said the sources.

Russia is intensifying hostilities in Ukraine a year after its invasion in a deliberate attempt to deplete Ukrainian forces, the Ukrainian military said on Thursday.

Brigadier general Oleksiy Gromov said Russia had set the goal of capturing all the territory it does not control in the two regions that make up the industrial Donbas area of eastern Ukraine by summer, Reuters reports.

The fiercest fighting remained around the eastern city of Bakhmut, he told a military briefing on the eve of Friday’s anniversary of the invasion on Feb. 24 last year.

Gromov said:

The enemy, having an advantage in the resource of human mobilisation, is deliberately intensifying hostilities in an effort to deplete the units of the armed forces of Ukraine…In the short term, it is important for the Kremlin to capture the key settlements in the Donetsk region, and in the future to capture (all of) the Donetsk and Luhansk regions before the summer.

Finland will send three Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, Reuters cites the country’s defence ministry as saying on Thursday.

The announcement comes after Sweden’s defence minister said it was open to sending some of its Leopard battle tanks.

As reported earlier, the Czech government has announced a further military aid shipment to Ukraine.

Here are some of the latest images from Ukraine:

A city worker cleans along the Wall of Remembrance of the Fallen for Ukraine near Mykhailivska Square, Kyiv
A city worker cleans along the Wall of Remembrance of the Fallen for Ukraine near Mykhailivska Square, Kyiv. Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA
A damaged business tower in Kyiv
A damaged business tower in Kyiv. Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA
Bags containing aid including food and hygiene products at a day centre in Kyiv
Bags containing aid including food and hygiene products at a day centre in Kyiv. Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA

The Czech government has approved a further military aid shipment to Ukraine and will continue to send equipment from stocks, the defence minister, Jana Černochová, said on Thursday.

Černochová did not disclose details of specific equipment being shipped, reports Reuters, but said the country had so far sent 38 tanks, 55 armoured vehicles, four aircraft and 13 self-propelled howitzers from its military reserves, alongside larger shipments from the private sector.

The founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force has said much-needed ammunition for his troops has been dispatched, after a public row in which he accused the military leadership of treason.

On Wednesday, Yevgeny Prigozhin published a grisly image of dozens of men who he said had been killed because commanders including the defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov, had withheld ammunition to spite him, Reuters reports. Neither man commented but the defence ministry rejected the charge.

In an audio clip on Thursday, Prigozhin said he felt the pressure he and others had put on the ministry had paid off, and he had been told that ammunition was now on its way.

“So far it’s all on paper but, so we have been told, the principal documents have already been signed,” Prigozhin said.

A Russian fighter plane crashed on Thursday and the pilot was killed in Russia’s Belgorod region, near the border with Ukraine.

The cause of the crash was a “technical malfunction”, according to preliminary information, the TASS news agency cited the ministry as saying. The plane crashed in an uninhabited area and there were no reports of other damage, it said.

In a post on the Telegram messenger app, Belgorod’s governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said the emergency services and investigators were on the scene near the town of Valyuki, and the reason for the crash was being established.

Mikhail Afanasyev wants your letters, write Andrew Roth and Pjotr Sauer. The Russian journalist from Abakan in Siberia was jailed last year for writing about a small group of national guardsmen who had refused to fight in Ukraine. But Afanasyev remains defiant, while local supporters crowdfund thousands of dollars to pay off his legal fines.

“It is the duty of every person to expand the horizon of freedom by his actions, so that light pours in and overcomes the darkness,” Afanasyev wrote from pre-trial detention in a letter to his supporters this month.

“I really ask you to write to me, very much! It helps me a lot … I just want to be a journalist, faithful to my profession to the end and defend its values.”

Read more of the story here:

Sweden is open to sending some of its Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine as it prepares to present another package of aid to help Kyiv fight off the Russian invasion, its defence minister told the local news agency TT.

The latest instalment Sweden has delivered to Ukraine since the invasion includes armoured infantry fighting vehicles, which the defence minister, Pal Jonson, told Reuters would be the country’s main contribution to Ukraine in terms of equipment for ground warfare.

Sweden is also preparing to send Ukraine the advanced Archer artillery system to Ukraine, and support has been growing in the Swedish parliament for additionally contributing some of the country’s around 120 Leopard tanks.

“We are open to that and we are in close dialogue with above all Germany about it,” Jonson was quoted by TT as saying.

Moldova dismisses Russia accusation of Ukraine planning to invade Transnistria

Moldova has dismissed an accusation by Russia’s defence ministry on Thursday that Ukraine planned to invade the breakaway Moldovan region of Transdniestria after staging a false-flag operation, and called for calm, Reuters reports.

Earlier we reported on Russia’s defence ministry accusing Ukraine of planning to invade Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region after a false-flag operation, citing reports from the RIA news agency.

The ministry said Ukraine planned to stage an attack purportedly by Russian forces from Transnistria as a pretext for the invasion, according to RIA.

Separately, the Tass news agency quoted the Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Galuzin as saying the west had instructed the Chisinau government to stop all interaction with the Moscow-backed Transnistrian administration.

Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu, accused Moscow earlier this month of planning a coup to overthrow the government and drag Transnistria into its war.

The mainly Russian-speaking region broke away from the then Soviet Moldova in 1990. After the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, pro-Russia separatists fought a bloody war with the Moldovan government forces.

The US Treasury secretary has stepped up calls for increased financing support to Ukraine, as the US readies an additional $10bn in economic assistance in the coming weeks.

In remarks prepared for delivery to a news conference as G20 finance leaders gathered on the outskirts of the Indian technology hub of Bengaluru, Janet Yellen said it was critical for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to “move swiftly” towards a fully financed loan programme for Ukraine, Reuters reports.

As President Biden has said, we will stand with Ukraine in its fight – for as long as it takes. Continued, robust support for Ukraine will be a major topic of discussion during my time here in India.

Yellen added:

Our economic assistance is making Ukraine’s resistance possible by supporting the home front: funding critical public services and helping keep the government running. In the coming months, we expect to provide around $10bn in additional economic support for Ukraine.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Russian founder of the Wagner mercenary group, was able to pass UK anti-money laundering checks by submitting a utility bill in the name of his elderly mother, the FT reports.

Leaked emails seen by the Financial Times show that the law firm Discreet Law in 2021 requested identification documents from Prigozhin, who has been placed under sanctions and accused of human rights abuses around the world, before taking him on as a client.

As part of anti-laundering checks, Prigozhin’s Russian lawyers forwarded the London-based law firm a copy of his passport and a gas bill in the name of his then 81-year-old mother, Violetta, for an address in St Petersburg, the FT reports.

Discreet Law’s founder, Roger Gherson, said the firm “cannot comment on confidential communications with [its] former clients”.

Here are some of the latest images from Ukraine:

Destroyed Russian military equipment is displayed in Kyiv’s Mykhailivska Square
Destroyed Russian military equipment is displayed in Kyiv’s Mykhailivska Square. Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA
The Wall of Remembrance of the Fallen for Ukraine near Mykhailivska Square, Kyiv.
The Wall of Remembrance of the Fallen for Ukraine near Mykhailivska Square, Kyiv. Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA
A damaged residential building in the town of Lyman, Donetsk region
A damaged residential building in the town of Lyman, Donetsk region. Photograph: Ihor Tkachov/AFP/Getty Images

Summary

Hello and welcome to those now following today’s live coverage on the war in Ukraine. It’s 10am in Kyiv.

On the eve of the anniversary of the start of the war, Vladimir Putin has threatened to strengthen Russia’s nuclear forces. His comments were released before an address to mark Thursday’s Defender of the Fatherland public holiday.

And Nato’s chief, Jens Stoltenberg, says the military alliance has seen “some signs” that China may be planning to support Russia in its war in Ukraine, and strongly urged Beijing to desist from what would be a violation of international law.

The UN general assembly is expected to endorse a broad resolution demanding Russia unconditionally and immediately withdraw from Ukraine’s territory by a massive majority. But China, South Africa, India and many countries in the global south are likely to continue to abstain, underlining their alienation from what they regarded as the west’s war.

We’ll have more on these stories shortly. In the meantime, here are the key recent developments:

  • ‘I think he is not going to stop’: UK defence secretary on Putin’s war. Ben Wallace has said the conflict in Ukraine could last another year. PA news also reported that Wallace stressed that the war was “not a Nato conflict”.

  • Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has arrived in Kyiv to meet Volodymyr Zelenskiy as the first anniversary of the Russian invasion approaches. Arriving in the Ukrainian capital, Sánchez said: “I’m back in Ukraine a year after the start of the war. We will stay by Ukraine’s side until peace returns to Europe.”

  • The town of Vuhledar, in southern Donetsk oblast, has experienced heavy shelling again, according to the UK MoD’s latest defence intelligence update. “There is a realistic possibility that Russia is preparing for another offensive effort in this area despite costly failed attacks in early February and late 2022,” the update on Thursday morning said.

  • The Chinese government did not consult with Kyiv when preparing its peace plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, a senior Ukrainian official said on condition of anonymity. “China did not consult with us,” the official told reporters.

  • Vladimir Putin will use an address to mark Thursday’s Defender of the Fatherland public holiday to threaten to strengthen the country’s nuclear forces. Putin said that for the first time, Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles – a weapon able to carry multiple nuclear warheads – would be deployed this year.

  • Joe Biden has said Putin made a “big mistake” by suspending the last remaining nuclear arms treaty with the US. The Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, has said Russia’s decision to suspend its participation in the New Start nuclear arms reduction treaty with the US will not increase the risk of a nuclear war. Russia’s parliament on Wednesday approved Putin’s move to suspend the treaty.

  • The Biden administration is considering releasing intelligence it believes shows that China is weighing whether to supply weapons to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

  • The UN secretary general, António Guterres, condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “an affront to our collective conscience”, at a two-day meeting of the general assembly. Friday’s anniversary is “a grim milestone for the people of Ukraine and for the international community”, he said in New York.

  • Two civilians were killed in Russian shelling of the Kherson region in southern Ukraine on Wednesday, according to regional officials. Oleksandr Prokudin, the head of the regional military administration, said an 81-year-old woman and a 68-year-old man were killed during shelling of the village of Novotyahinka, about 40km (25 miles) from Kherson city. A Russian missile strike on the north-eastern city of Kharkiv on Wednesday morning left two civilians wounded, Oleh Synyehubov, the governor of Kharkiv region, has said.

  • Biden vowed that the US would defend “literally every inch of Nato” territory, ahead of talks with Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, and leaders of the Bucharest Nine (B9), a collection of nations on the most eastern parts of the Nato alliance and closest to Russia.

  • All members of the B9 have jointly condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine, a Polish presidential adviser said. Biden and the B9 leaders “reaffirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine and underscored their shared commitment to stand with the Ukrainian people for as long as it takes” according to a White House account of Wednesday afternoon’s meeting in Warsaw.

  • China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, has met Vladimir Putin in Moscow, as China and Russia reaffirm their close bilateral relationship. Wang told Putin that Beijing would play a “constructive” role in reaching a political settlement of the crisis in Ukraine, the Russian state-owned Tass news agency reported.

  • Earlier on Wednesday, Wang met Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, where he said he expected to reach a “new consensus” on advancing the relationship between the two allies. Xi Jinping, China’s president, is expected to visit Putin in Russia in the coming months.

  • Vladimir Putin has praised soldiers who are “fighting heroically, courageously, bravely” to “defend the fatherland”, in a speech at a rally in Moscow to mark a year of war in Ukraine. Thousands gathered at Luzhniki stadium in Moscow for a concert marking Defenders of the Fatherland Day.

  • EU countries have failed to agree on a new set of sanctions against Russia meant to be in place for the one-year anniversary of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine on Friday, four diplomatic sources in Brussels have told Reuters. More talks among Brussels representatives of EU member countries were due on Thursday afternoon, said the sources.

On Thursday 2 February, my friend Pete Reed died as he tried to evacuate civilians in the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, writes Cengiz Yar.

Based on footage we now have of the incident, his vehicle was hit by a Russian anti-tank missile. He was killed in the blast, and others in his team were severely injured. Reports suggest it was likely a double-tap strike, a technique used frequently by Russia in Syria, where an attack is made to draw in additional support and recovery operations before a second attack is made.

Pete was one of the most selfless people I’ve ever met. You should know a bit about the good he did in this world.

I met him in the spring of 2016 over some drinks in Iraq, where I worked as a photographer. He was loud, a bit goofy, and trying to do some good. What good? He hadn’t quite figured that out yet.

Read more by Cengiz Yar here:

Sam Jones

Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has arrived in Kyiv to meet Volodymyr Zelenskiy as the first anniversary of the Russian invasion approaches.

Arriving in the Ukrainian capital, Sánchez said:

I’m back in Ukraine a year after the start of the war. We will stay by Ukraine’s side until peace returns to Europe.

Sánchez, who last visited Ukraine in April, is understood to have travelled to Ukraine at Zelenskiy’s invitation.

Pedro Sánchez arriving in Kyiv
Pedro Sánchez arriving in Kyiv this morning, where he was met by the deputy foreign minister, Yevhen Perebyinis. Photograph: Spanish government handout

Vuelvo a Kyiv un año después del inicio de la guerra.

Estaremos al lado de Ucrania y de su gente hasta que la paz regrese a Europa.

Сьогодні повертаюся до Києва.

Ми будемо з Україною та її народом, поки до Європи не повернеться мир. pic.twitter.com/9ekUL9Lmfl

— Pedro Sánchez (@sanchezcastejon) February 23, 2023